Executive Summary
Since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, the country has been entrenched in an undeclared civil war. Anti-coup forces, including the National Unity Government (NUG), the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), have gained territorial control, further marginalizing the junta, or State Administration Council (SAC). The junta’s peace offers and plans for elections have been widely rejected, with opposition citing its war crimes and lack of legitimacy. Meanwhile, China’s involvement, including ceasefire mediation in northern Shan, underscores its strategic interests in Myanmar’s stability. The report highlights escalating tensions, the strengthening of anti-junta groups, and the implications for regional security and international diplomacy.
1. Background
Historical Context
The February 2021 coup ousted Myanmar’s democratically elected government, led by the National League for Democracy (NLD). In response, civilian forces allied with long-standing EAOs to challenge the military junta. The junta’s brutal crackdowns exacerbated resistance, resulting in:
- 50,000 deaths and over 2 million displaced, according to the UN.
- The junta controlling less than half of the national territory.
Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)
Groups like the Karen National Union (KNU) and Shan organizations have fought for autonomy for decades. They now collaborate with anti-junta forces to consolidate territorial control. Key demands include:
- Exclusion of the military from politics.
- Federal democratic governance.
- Accountability for war crimes.
National Unity Government (NUG)
The NUG, formed by ousted lawmakers, leads resistance efforts, coordinating with PDF and EAOs. It dismissed the junta’s peace offer as illegitimate, emphasizing democratic restoration.
Geopolitical Dynamics
China’s strategic interest in Myanmar involves safeguarding its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, especially the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Recent Chinese-brokered ceasefires in northern Shan underscore its influence but invite skepticism about its neutrality.
2. Recent Developments
Territorial Dynamics
Anti-coup forces have significantly expanded their control:
- Karen Rebels recently seized a vital junta military camp in Lutshan, disrupting supply lines.
- The junta’s operational capacity is increasingly limited to central Myanmar.
Junta’s Peace Offer
In an effort to regain control, the junta proposed peace talks and elections, claiming political issues require political solutions. These moves are widely seen as attempts to secure legitimacy amid battlefield losses.
Nationwide Census
The junta conducted a census (October 2024) to prepare for elections, which critics allege could be used to surveil anti-junta actors and suppress dissent.
3. Strategic Analysis
Security Implications
- Internal Stability: The junta’s shrinking territorial control raises risks of intensified crackdowns and guerrilla warfare.
- Regional Spillover: Refugee flows to neighboring Thailand and India, and potential cross-border conflict, pose regional security challenges.
- China’s Role: Beijing’s involvement may deepen, primarily to protect its infrastructure projects rather than mediate a resolution.
Political Implications
- Legitimacy Crisis: The junta’s electoral plans lack credibility without concessions to opposition groups.
- Civil Resistance: Continued resistance by NUG, EAOs, and PDFs will likely prolong instability, potentially leading to prolonged state fragmentation.
4. Strategic Recommendations
Diplomatic Engagement
- Engage ASEAN and UN to coordinate peace negotiations with credible mediators.
- Leverage China’s Influence to ensure ceasefires include guarantees for democratic transition.
Support to Opposition Forces
- Support NUG-led governance frameworks to bolster democratic alternatives.
- Encourage EAOs to adopt unified strategies for negotiations with international support.
Address Regional Implications
- Enhance border management and humanitarian aid for refugees in Thailand and India.
- Promote bilateral cooperation with regional neighbors to mitigate conflict spillover.
Strengthen Civil Society
- International actors should invest in civil society organizations to foster political awareness and grassroots resistance to military rule.
5. Conclusion
Myanmar’s conflict remains complex and multifaceted, with the junta losing ground both politically and militarily. Anti-coup forces’ continued resistance highlights the population’s demand for democratic restoration. However, achieving stability will require a combination of internal reforms, international mediation, and regional cooperation.