Executive Summary:

Since Myanmar’s Military Junta (State Administration Council (SAC)) was formed by toppling the elected government in 2021, the country has been in a rage of undeclared civil wars with anti-coup forces strengthening their position and claiming areas from the Junta. The anti-Junta forces declined the peace offer and the promise of elections by junta, citing the junta’s war crimes and lack of legitimacy amid the background of the recent ceasefires brokered by China in northern Shan putting scepticism on its involvement in Myanmar’s complex internal situation.

Background:

The February 2021 military coup toppled the democratically elected government from power. The military junta has faced continuous resistance from civilian forces and ethnic armed groups ever since. The military responded with brutal crackdowns, pushing various opposition groups to form alliances and wage guerrilla warfare across the country. The conflict has resulted in at least 50,000 deaths and over 2 million people being displaced, according to the UN.

Ethnic armed groups, some of whom have fought for autonomy for decades, along with anti-coup militias started taking control of swaths of the country pushing military junta only to the central part of Myanmar. This shows that the Junta is losing its base in the battlefield in the ongoing civil war that has been happening for the past three years.

Key Players:

1. State Administration Council (SAC) / Military Junta:

• Facing increasing pressure from anti-coup forces.
• Reports show that they are left with less than half of the territory in their hands under their control.
• Attempting to maintain power and hold through military means and promising elections and peace deals with anti-coup forces.

1. National Unity Government (NUG):

• Consisting of elected lawmakers removed by the coup.
• It leads the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), coordinating with ethnic armed groups.
• This group also dismissed the military junta’s peace offer, stating the junta lacked legitimacy and authority to hold elections.

1. Ethnic Armed Organisations

• Ethnic groups like the KNU and Shan groups have long fought for autonomy.
• The Karen National Union (KNU) put forward three demands the military should not participate in future politics, a federal democratic constitution and accountability for military crimes by the Junta.
• These organisations control significant territory along the Thai and Chinese borders.

1. People’s Republic of China

• China is a neighbouring state with a 2,129 km shared border.
• Brokered ceasefires in northern Shan State, raising suspicions of its growing influence in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
• Strategic interests include securing its BRI projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and ensuring stability near its border, particularly a highway connecting Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean connecting its landlocked province with the ocean.
• It is also said that Beijing’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, is thought to have delivered a warning to the country’s ruler Min Aung Hlaing during a visit to Myanmar.

Recent Developments:

1. Myanmar’s census: SAC has started a nationwide census, from October 1-15, aiming to compile voter lists for proposed next year’s election, stating to “ensure the accuracy of voter lists”, despite ongoing civil war, the decline of peace talks and concerns from pro-democracy groups. This might also be the plan to have data regarding the anti-Junta coups and their members to retaliate efficiently.
2. Military Junta’s Peace Offer: The peace talks proposed by the Junta saying “political issues need to be solved politically” comes against the backdrop of the junta losing its hold on the territory increasing military pressure, battlefield losses, and attempts to legitimise their rule through elections scheduled for next year. However, this offer was swiftly rejected by key opposition forces, including the NUG, which labelled the elections illegitimate.
3. Territorial gains of Anti-Junta forces: Anti-coup groups have continued to expand their control, with the Karen rebels seizing a military camp at Lutshan, cutting off a vital resupply route for the Myanmar military. Pushing the Junta to the central part of the Myanmar territory significantly weakening their operational capacity.

& FoAnalysis recast:

The ongoing instability in Myanmar poses potential risks for neighbouring countries such as Thailand and India, which are dealing with refugees and the potential spillover of the conflict. ASEAN’s efforts to mediate the crisis have so far been ineffective, with the bloc divided on how to address Myanmar’s internal conflict. The junta’s attempts at peace and legitimacy through elections are unlikely to succeed without meaningful concessions to opposition groups. The civil war in Myanmar is likely to continue as anti-Junta forces are strengthening their capacity and territorial hold by pressurising Junta. China will continue to play a key role, but its primary interest remains safeguarding its infrastructure projects, rather than resolving the conflict. The last resort left for the Junta might be either to increase aggressive actions to full strength against anti-junta forces or go for a ceasefire which might see them out of power.

Conclusion:

Myanmar’s political and military landscape remains highly volatile, with increasing pressure on Junta and anti-Junta forces gaining ground and refusal to engage in the junta’s peace talks by the NUG and ethnic armed groups showing a strong demand to bring the elected democratic government back.

PDF & EAO claimed area