Strategic Intelligence Report : Unity Deal between Hamas and Fatah

Overview

On July 23, 2024, Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah signed a significant unity deal brokered by China. This agreement marks a pivotal moment in Palestinian politics, with potential far-reaching implications for the West Asian peace process, regional stability, and international security.

Profiling

Fatah:

– Founded: 1959

– Founders: Yasser Arafat & Khalil al-Wazir

– Ideology: Initially focused on armed struggle against Israel, later evolved towards a more pragmatic approach, including political negotiations.

– Role: Central role in the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO); became the dominant faction within the PLO and the primary representative of the Palestinian people in international forums.

– Leadership: Yasser Arafat led Fatah until his death in 2004, after which Mahmoud Abbas became its leader.

Hamas:

– Founded: 1987, during the First Intifada (Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation)

– Founder: Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi, and Mahmoud Zahar.

– Ideology: Islamic fundamentalism with a focus on armed resistance against Israel; opposes the existence of Israel and seeks to establish an Islamic state in historic Palestine.

– Role: Initially a social and religious organization, quickly evolved into a significant militant and political force.

History

Oslo & Post-Oslo

– Oslo Accords (1993-1995): Negotiated by the PLO (dominated by Fatah), the accords aimed to establish a framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and led to the creation of the Palestinian National Authority (PA).

– Hamas Opposition: Hamas rejected the Oslo Accords, viewing them as a betrayal of Palestinian rights and refusing to recognize Israel. This opposition marked the beginning of significant tensions between Hamas and Fatah.

Second Intifada and the Rise of Hamas

– Second Intifada (2000-2005): A period of intensified Israeli-Palestinian violence. Hamas’s military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, played a major role in the uprising through suicide bombings and attacks on Israeli targets.

– Fatah’s Struggles: Fatah faced criticism for corruption and inefficacy, leading to a decline in its popularity among Palestinians.

2006 Elections and the Split

– 2006 Legislative Elections: Hamas won a surprise victory in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections, defeating Fatah and gaining a majority of seats.

– Formation of Hamas Government: Hamas’s election win led to international sanctions and a refusal by Israel, the U.S., and the EU to engage with a Hamas-led government unless it renounced violence, recognized Israel, and accepted previous agreements.

– Internal Clashes: Tensions escalated between Hamas and Fatah, resulting in violent clashes. In 2007, Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip after fierce fighting, effectively splitting Palestinian governance: Hamas ruling Gaza and Fatah ruling the West Bank.

Attempts at Reconciliation

– Multiple Reconciliation Attempts: Several attempts at reconciliation have been made, often brokered by regional powers like Egypt and Qatar. Notable agreements include the 2011 Cairo Agreement and the 2014 Gaza Agreement, but implementation has consistently faltered.

– 2017 Agreement: Another attempt in Cairo saw some progress, but deep-seated mistrust and divergent interests continued to pose significant barriers.

– Post 7th October 2023: Sensing that the existence of a Palestinian state is critically under threat, Russia initiated the all-Palestinian unity forum as Moscow Talks. It was followed up by Beijing Talks. Both the talks were fundamental to reach an understanding that culminated into the Beijing Declaration.

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