Executive Summary
Bolivia is navigating a precarious political landscape marked by deep divisions between the opposition and the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS), led by President Luis Arce. Lingering tensions from the 2019 political crisis—when former President Evo Morales was ousted—continue to fuel unrest. Accusations against Arce’s government include undermining democratic principles, centralizing power, and suppressing opposition. These allegations have spurred violent protests, economic challenges, and threats to national stability, particularly as the 2025 elections approach. External economic pressures and internal instability further jeopardize the nation’s recovery and governance.

Conflict Background & Dynamics

1. 1990s to 2005:
   • U.S.-backed coca cultivation restrictions prompted Evo Morales to establish the MAS party.
   • Neoliberal economic reforms under President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada faced backlash, sparking the Water War and the Gas Conflict.
   • Widespread protests against privatization and poor living standards led to Lozada’s resignation in 2003.
2. 2005 to 2018:
   • Morales’ presidency prioritized resource nationalization, indigenous rights, and poverty alleviation.
   • Despite economic growth, Morales faced opposition from resource-rich regions and accusations of limiting political freedoms.
   • The approval of a new constitution in 2009 declared Bolivia a plurinational state, bolstering indigenous representation but fueling regional tensions.
3. 2019 to Present:
   • Allegations of electoral fraud in the 2019 elections triggered violent protests and Morales’ resignation.
   • Interim President Jeanine Áñez faced accusations of leading a coup, deepening societal fractures.
   • Current President Luis Arce has struggled to reconcile the MAS factions and manage opposition-driven unrest, while Morales remains a divisive figure banned from the 2025 elections.

Impact Analysis

1. Political Instability:
   • Polarization persists between MAS supporters, indigenous groups, and urban middle-class voters disillusioned with MAS policies.
   • Protests and political realignment, particularly among indigenous communities, threaten governance stability.
2. Military and Law Enforcement:
   • Past human rights violations and potential interference in electoral processes could exacerbate tensions.
3. Economic Challenges:
   • Dependency on resource sectors like mining and agriculture is unsustainable amid political uncertainty.
   • Foreign investment is at risk due to policy inconsistencies and election-related instability.

Resolution & Management

1. Transparent Electoral Processes:
   • Implement electoral reforms and ensure independent audits to restore public trust.
2. Political Reconciliation:
   • Foster dialogues between MAS and opposition parties to mitigate unrest and promote inclusive governance.
3. Economic Diversification:
   • Reduce reliance on extractive industries and prioritize sustainable development initiatives.

Future Outlook
The 2025 elections are a critical juncture for Bolivia. A peaceful and transparent electoral process could stabilize the nation, attract investments, and strengthen democratic institutions. However, the risks of prolonged unrest, economic stagnation, and deepening political divisions remain significant.

Conclusion
Bolivia’s trajectory hinges on its ability to reconcile political factions, uphold democratic norms, and address economic disparities. While challenges abound, the upcoming elections present an opportunity for transformative change, provided the nation can navigate this turbulent period with resilience and unity.