1. Executive Summary:

Recent Chinese activities along the Nepal border, such as fencing and border fortifications, not only sound a message of expanding claims over the region’s territories but also send out a sense of potential threats to the South Asian region arising out of Chinese influence and affecting the sovereignty of Nepal and security dynamics. This therefore suggests that Nepal should have diplomatic dialogues with China but build stronger international partnerships to counterbalance the influence of China, especially with India and the United States.

2. Background:

Historical Background:

China and Nepal have a long-history border relationship from as far back as the 1961 Border Treaty, but small issues pertaining to boundary lines remain an issue that is compounded by some natural causes and unclear delineations​.

Current Developments:

Reports about China building fences and military infrastructure along the Tibet-Nepal border started surfacing as early as 2024, if one goes by the side of Humla. These measures taken by China on its territory are considered to be territorial grabs and raise several issues and concerns about the sovereignty of Nepal.

Geopolitical Background:

It is an enhancement of Chinese influence in Nepal through military and infrastructural means, which fits into Beijing’s broader strategy of asserting control over its periphery, affecting Nepal’s foreign policy independence, and adding new tensions to South Asia’s regional security framework.

3. Strategic Analysis:

Geopolitical Implications: The expansion of China’s military presence along Nepal’s borders threatens to upset the strategic balance in South Asia. It should eventually strengthen Beijing’s hold over Nepal while making it impossible for Kathmandu to pursue independent foreign policy.

Economic Impact: More roads, railways, etc. that are being developed in China inside Nepal would increase Nepal’s economic dependencies again, much like the current investments made along the Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, it would limit the ability of Nepal to diversify international trade partners .

Security Implications: The Chinese military and surveillance infrastructure reportedly developed inside Nepal does raise regional tensions, particularly with India. It increases the complication to the South Asia security architecture, which is already pressurized from the two countries’ rivalries.

Social and Political Impact: For long the government of Nepal would not have committed to border issues arising on the north as it has been apprehensive of what might happen in the wake of economic relations with China .

Internal political splits within Nepal amongst the Communists and other parties also stand in the way of a supra-communal national approach to the encroachment issue .

4. Scenario Analysis:

Best Case Scenario: Nepal and China succeed in solving border disputes through diplomatic means stabilizing the region, ensuring Nepal sovereignty so that no encroachment occurs.

Most Likely Scenario: China continues making incremental territorial claims while Nepal is sandwiched at the negotiating table between economic ties to China and diplomatic entrenchment with other powers like India.

Worst-Case Scenario: Border tensions escalate into a security crisis, possibly even sending regional players like India into a tizzy and thereby adversely affecting the overall security situation in South Asia.

5. Strategic Recommendations:

Diplomatic Recommendations: Nepal should initiate formal boundary dialogue with China to minimize the nuisance of encroachment and seek international cooperation from India, the United States and other regional stakeholders in order to preserve its sovereignty.

Economic Recommendations: Nepal needs to bring a reduction in economic dependency on China by entering into stronger trade relations with South Asian neighboring countries and seek synergies with the European Union and other world powers.

Security Recommendations: There is a need for joint security dialogues with India and the US to balance out Chinese influence growing along Nepal’s borders, through increased security partnerships that ensure territorial integrity and manage security threat.

Policy Recommendations: Nepal should participate in open boundary talks with the Chinese and coordinate with the international partners to ensure regional stability and protect its territorial integrity.

6. Conclusion

The activities along the Nepal border by China represent an immediate challenge to Nepalese sovereignty, while it also marks a deeper strategic shift in South Asia. The stability of this region will depend upon Nepal’s ability to navigate these complex geopolitical waters: to balance its economic ties with China while attempting to facilitate increased security cooperation with other regional players.

Annexes

Nepal-China border showing the fence construction

Data on Chinese investments in Nepal under BRI