Executive Summary

The 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections have likely reinforced Russia’s expanding geopolitical sway, with the Georgian Dream party securing a contentious victory. Opposition leader Nika Gvaramia of the Ahali party denounced the election process, calling it a “constitutional coup” and asserting that Georgian Dream’s dominance would not last. Despite declining popularity and growing public discontent over perceived authoritarianism, Georgian Dream clinched a fourth consecutive term—allegedly through questionable means.

This election had been anticipated as an opportunity for Georgia to realign with its European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. President Salome Zourabichvili has vocally disputed the legitimacy of the vote, urging citizens to protest in response to the alleged election fraud that took place.

Situational Overview

Georgian Dream won with a reported 54.23% majority, though the opposition has challenged the result, citing widespread “rigging” and calling for annulment. Observers from the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights noted that the election process was marred by entrenched polarization, restrictive laws on freedoms, and pressures on civil society. International voices, including those from the European Council and NATO, expressed concern, indicating their solidarity with pro-democracy demonstrators in Georgia.

Discrepancies between official results and exit polls have fueled these accusations, with exit data from opposition-leaning networks suggesting Georgian Dream held only 41-42% of the vote, while opposition parties collectively surpassed 50%. Pre-election polls similarly indicated higher support for the opposition, suggesting substantial irregularities in the final tally.

Analysis of the Current Situation

Georgia’s gradual gravitation towards Russia is already evident through its affiliations with groups like the 3+3 format and BRICS. The Kremlin has extended overtures to Georgian Dream on multiple occasions, which are likely to gain traction unless the opposition consolidates its stance. Public sentiment increasingly views Georgian Dream as beholden to Moscow, a belief further stoked by the party’s attempts to restrict opposition activity, which fell short of a constitutional majority required for such measures.

This political shift towards Russia challenges Georgia’s traditionally Western-aligned aspirations, sparking a national identity crisis and diminishing hope for EU and NATO membership—a long-standing constitutional aim since the 2003 Rose Revolution.

Threat Assessment

Georgia faces the likelihood of sustained civil unrest, fueled by frustration over Georgian Dream’s perceived authoritarian drift and alignment with Russian interests. Mass protests in Tbilisi, potentially marked by violence, underscore the public’s dissatisfaction and apprehension about the nation’s future. Calls from President Zourabichvili for public demonstrations continue to escalate tensions, with reports of clashes with law enforcement and threats against voting machine personnel surfacing.

The lack of a comprehensive strategy from Western allies like the US and EU leaves Georgia’s democratic future in a precarious state, as opposition forces grapple with unity and direction.

Recommendations and Conclusions

1. Plan of Action for Opposition Unity
   The opposition, fractured throughout the campaign, only demonstrated unity with the “Georgian Charter” initiative in the final stages. To challenge Georgian Dream effectively, opposition factions must strengthen collaboration, presenting a united front that reassures the public of a viable alternative. Street protests alone are unlikely to produce meaningful change; a cohesive strategy is essential for channeling public discontent into structured political action.
2. Increased Western Involvement
   Western powers can no longer limit their engagement to observing and critiquing from the sidelines. Given the pressing concerns about Georgian Dream’s authoritarian tendencies and proximity to Moscow, the EU and US should formulate a tangible plan of action to support Georgia’s democratic aspirations. This approach is especially critical following Georgia’s accession to the European Union in December 2023, as the West’s credibility in promoting democracy in post-Soviet states is at stake.

Conclusion

The 2024 elections have solidified Georgian Dream’s political hold, albeit under contentious circumstances. While the party has secured a fourth term, the unpredictable dynamics of widespread protests could pressure the government into strategic missteps that may prove destabilizing. The extent to which Western allies will respond, coupled with the opposition’s ability to rally, will significantly influence Georgia’s trajectory.