1. Executive Summary

The country of Georgia is facing widespread unrest as the government has decided to push back the accession talks with the European Union until 2028. Protestors and the police forces are clashing which has taken a violent turn with the former demanding membership in the EU. International pressure is growing, and key players in this drama include President Salome Zourabichvili and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. The conflict has a serious dimension for the political climate of Georgia and its relations with western powers and immediate neighbor Russia.

2. Background

While Georgia has had a decades-long priority focus on achieving integration with Western institutions, most notably within the EU and NATO, the opposition Georgian Dream party’s policy to suspend EU membership talks recently has become perceived as pro-Russian drift. This follows disputed parliamentary elections in October 2024 marred by irregularities, particularly vote manipulation and voter intimidation, the opposition and international observers claim. Suspension of EU talks intensifies public dissatisfaction, with mass demonstrations.

3. Conflict Scenario Development

Develop Scenarios:

• Escalation: Heightened tensions could protract civil unrest, governmental instability, and the decline of democratic institutions in Georgia. There may be an authoritarian crackdown on human rights, and dissent would become increasingly suppressed. This will at least strain relations with Western allies while drawing closer ties to Russia and changing the regional power balance.
• Stalemate: An extended deadlock with no resolution may lead to protracted protests, economic recession, and an insidious loss in the people’s confidence in the governmental machinery. The political stalemate could delay policy and reform implementation processes and exacerbate socio-economic troubles and create uncertainty.
• De-escalation: Inclusive dialogue between the government and opposition, mediated through international mediators, could open ways for political compromise. Reforms on electoral grievances and reaffirmation of their integration commitments could revive public confidence and stabilize the political environment.

Implications Assessment:

• Local Population: Escalation may lead to increased violence, human rights abuses, and economic hardships. Stalemate can perpetuate uncertainty and socio-economic stagnation. De-escalation promises democratic renewal and enhanced living standards.
• Regional Actors: Neighbouring countries may feel spillover effects of instability, including refugee flows and security threats. Regional alliances may be challenged and, by extension, regional dynamics in the Caucasus would also be impacted.
• Global Security: The instability in Georgia is relevant for the energy sector as well due to the fact that this country acts as a transit one for the transit pipelines. Aligned interests and changed alliances in greater East-West relationships could trigger serious impacts for the international security environment.

4. Conflict Analysis

Leading actors include Georgian Dream ruling party; opposition groups arguing for European Union integration; NGOs; transnational forces represented by the EU, USA, and Russia, inter alia.

There have been mass protests following the suspension of talks with the EU, forcing clashes with police using tear gas and water cannons. President Zourabichvili called for new elections, to which Prime Minister Kobakhidze responded defiantly, dismissing international criticism. Parliament boycott by opposition and public demands for EU integration at large reflect enormous societal fragmentation.

5. Impact Assessment

• Regional Stability: Georgia’s conflict will destabilise the South Caucasus to its neighbor Armenia and Azerbaijan. It may also encourage secessionist groups within Georgia to challenge territorial integrity.
• International Relations: The crisis strains Georgia’s relations with Western allies, potentially leading to sanctions or reduced support. Conversely, Russia may seek to exploit the situation to expand its influence, complicating the geopolitical landscape.

6. Conflict Resolution Recommendations

• Facilitate Inclusive Dialogue: Engage the government, opposition and civil society in mediated talks to address grievances and chart a way forward.
• Electoral Reforms: Implement transparent electoral processes to restore public trust and ensure fair representation.
• Reaffirm EU Integration Commitment: The government should clearly articulate its dedication to EU accession, aligning with the populace’s aspirations and international expectations.
• International Mediation: Seek mediation of international organizations to maintain a check on the scenario while strictly adhering to democratic practices and human rights.

7. Conclusion

Georgia has come to a critical crossroads, where the trajectory of democracy and international alliances is questioned. The roots of the unrest must be solved through inclusive dialogue, authentic reforms, and a firm adherence to democratic principles. International support in this facilitation process will determine whether Georgia remains stable and progresses toward European integration.