Situation Overview:

• Current Status: Iran is engaging in psychological warfare by delaying its promised retaliation for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran. This delay has created an atmosphere of uncertainty and speculation, enhancing the psychological impact on both regional and global actors.
• Key Developments:
  • Iran continues to vow revenge against Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh, but its lack of action has heightened psychological tension. Ali Fadavi, the Deputy Commander of the IRGC, has emphasized the stress this delay causes, describing it as “harder than waiting for one’s death.”
  • Ali-Mohammad Naini, a spokesperson for the IRGC and a noted psychological warfare expert, has suggested that the delay could be prolonged, further contributing to the psychological strain on Israel.
  • Additionally, Iran is reportedly supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, which could escalate the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Diplomatic ties between Iran and Russia continue to strengthen, with both nations nearing the completion of a comprehensive cooperation agreement.

3. Operational Summary:

• Forces Involved: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hamas, Israeli military, Russian and Ukrainian forces.
• Actions Taken: Iran has publicly stated its intention to retaliate against Israel but has delayed taking direct action. Concurrently, Iran’s supply of ballistic missiles to Russia suggests active support in the Ukraine conflict.
• Objectives Achieved: The delay has successfully kept international actors on edge, amplifying the psychological pressure on Israel and its allies.

4. Intelligence Summary:

• Key Findings:
  • Iran’s delayed response serves as both a psychological tactic and a strategic manoeuvre to avoid immediate conflict while maintaining the threat of retaliation.
  • The supply of ballistic missiles to Russia indicates Iran’s deepening involvement in the Ukraine war, which could have broader geopolitical ramifications.
  • Iranian psychological tactics are deeply rooted in creating anxiety and uncertainty, a strategy that has been employed domestically for decades and is now being applied to Israel.
• Threats and Risks:
  • The delay in retaliation increases the risk of sudden and unpredictable escalation in West Asia.
  • Iran’s actions could provoke a more robust response from Kyiv’s allies, potentially drawing more nations into the Ukraine conflict.
• Forecast:
  • Iran may continue to delay its retaliation, using diplomatic developments or external events, such as a Gaza ceasefire, as justification.
  • The risk of a larger conflict remains high, with potential flashpoints in both the West Asia and Ukraine.

5. Logistics and Support Summary:

• Supplies and Resources: Iran’s supply of ballistic missiles to Russia suggests that its military-industrial complex remains capable of producing and exporting advanced weaponry.
• Transport and Communication: No significant disruptions were reported.
• Challenges: Balancing the desire for retaliation with the risks of broader conflict poses a strategic dilemma for the Iranian leadership.

6. Casualties and Damage Report:

• Personnel Casualties: No new reports of casualties linked directly to this situation.
• Material Damage: No significant material damage reported.

7. Psychological Impact:

• On Israel: The Israeli population is experiencing significant stress and anxiety due to the constant threat of retaliation. Civilian life is disrupted, with reports of individuals avoiding travel and public spaces out of fear.
  • Example: Israeli resident Meital Brown described the pervasive anxiety, particularly concerning the safety of her children, due to the ongoing threat of Iranian retaliation.
• On Iran: The Iranian population, having been subjected to similar psychological tactics by their own government for decades, is reportedly desensitized to these methods. This desensitization is likely reducing the domestic impact of Iran’s current strategy.
  • Expert Analysis: Psychotherapist Azadeh Afsahi highlights that Iran’s psychological warfare tactics aim to keep people in a state of fear and uncertainty, a method long used internally and now applied externally.

8. Future Actions:

• Immediate Priorities: Monitor for any sudden changes in Iran’s military posture or retaliatory actions.
• Long-term Strategies: Assess the impact of Iran’s psychological warfare tactics on regional stability and global geopolitical dynamics.

9. Recommendations:

• Strategic patience is advised: Engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions while preparing for potential rapid shifts in the situation.
• Enhanced monitoring: Increase intelligence-gathering activities focused on Iran’s military and diplomatic movements.
• Public Communication: Consider countermeasures to address and mitigate the psychological impact on the Israeli population.