Executive summary

The sudden and successful test of Kalam series of missiles from nuclear powered attack submarines, Indian navy has assured true second-strike capability for India. This report dwells into the details of India’s sea component of nuclear triad i.e. the Ship submersible ballistic submarines and its deadly missiles. The report also focuses on the philosophical doctrine of nuclear weapons in the world. It analyses the impact of the event and tries to explain in crisp form the importance of the missile test for India and the Indian ocean region.

 

Background

November 28^th, 2024 came as surprise for Indian military enthusiast, when it was reported that Indian Navy has tested its third and most discreet component of nuclear triad i.e. K-4 missile from its nuclear submarine INS Arighat. This news was confirmed by the Indian Navy chief in a press conference two days before the celebration of Navy Day. He stated “India had carried out a test of the missile and the launch was successful. The agencies concerned are examining the trajectory that the missile took and soon we will see the results”. In this conference, he also gave updates about the whole nuclear spectrum of the Indian navy, which includes Ship submersible nuclear (SSN) and Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN) submarines.

 

Military analysis

The term “Nuclear Triad” came into existence with the arms race between the United states of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic during the cold war period. It is a military strategy where the country prepares three delivery platforms for nuclear attacks. It includes land, sea and air components. A major purpose of the nuclear triad is to reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all the nation’s nuclear forces in a first-strike attack by retaining a true second-strike capability, a viable threat that increases nuclear deterrence. INS Arighat the Arihant class SSBN of India, second in line is equipped with K-4 missiles, which forms the sea component for the Indian Nuclear triad. The philosophy behind the nuclear triad is “Mutual assured destruction” which is also termed as MAD. It was a brainchild of US Defence Secretary of State Robert S. McNamara. He, during Cuban missile crisis changed nuclear strategy of United states and stated that this doctrine of “assured destruction” could be achieved with as few as 400 high-yield nuclear weapons targeting Soviet population centres; these would be “sufficient to destroy over one-third of [the Soviet] population and one-half of [Soviet] industry.” He also believed that this mutual annihilation strategy would serve as perfect deterrence.

 

Operational assessment

The sea component of India’s Nuclear triad consists of SSNs and SSBNs both. India’s only SSN, INS Chakra II, was decommissioned in 2021. It was an Akula class submarine leased from Russia. India has signed a $3 billion agreement with Russia to lease another Akula-class submarine, which is expected to join the Indian Navy by 2025. It will be a replacement of INS Chakra II. In addition to it, the navy is also planning to have indigenous Nuclear attack submarines under Project 71 Alpha. But the real deterrence comes from the Arihant class submarines. It is one of the most confidential defence plans of India in which until now, two submarines have been commissioned named INS Arihant and INS Arighat. Third member of the family i.e. INS Aridhaman, is slated for commissioning next year and the fourth SSBN, codenamed S4*, was launched on 16 October, just a day after Defence Minister Singh inaugurated a Very Low Frequency Naval Station in Vikarabad, Telangana. Indian SSBNs will act as a “Dead hand protocol” for the Indian State. It is the name given to the deterrence system of the Soviet Union during the cold war era i.e. the “Perimeter system”. This system could launch the entire Soviet nuclear arsenal in response to a nuclear attack by the United States. It was part of the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction, a means of deterring nuclear attacks by ensuring the side who initiated a first strike also would be annihilated. The theory is that a command-and-control system measures communications on military frequencies, radiation levels, air pressure, heat and short-term seismic disturbances. If the measurement points to a nuclear attack, the Perimeter begins a sequence that would end in the firing of all ICBMs in the Soviet (now, Russian) arsenal. Indian submarines, until now, equipped with two deadly ballistic missiles named K-15 with range upto 750 KMs and K-4, which is upto 3500 KMs. Both are nuclear tipped and cover the whole of China and Pakistan, the two main adversaries of India.

 

Future plans of DRDO includes increasing the family of K-5 and K-6 missiles which will have a higher range and MIRV included. K-6 is also expected to be an Intercontinental ballistic missile.

 

Impact assessment

The Indian ocean extends from the Horn of Africa to the Strait of Malacca. It includes the Arabian sea, Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. All these water bodies are covered under the “area of interest” or the strategic backyard of the Indian Navy. India positions itself as a “net security provider” in the region and follows the SAGAR doctrine, which is an acronym for Security and growth for all in the region. It is well known that the presence of the People’s Liberation Army Navy of China has increased in the Indian ocean region and also the difference between the strengths of the Navy is growing rapidly at least in quantitative terms. Former National Security Adviser and China expert Shiv Shankar Menon in his book “Choices” has mentioned that the focus of Indian forces should not be to get into the arms race with China but to make this difference slowly reduce and always target for a qualitative edge over them. And the Arihant class submarines armed with Kalam series of missiles will ensure that this difference is slowly reduced and all strategic objectives of the Indian Navy are fulfilled.

 

Conclusion

There are various schools of thought on the legitimacy of the nuclear weapons. One of them states that the underlying philosophy behind nuclear weapons is the Nash equilibrium of the Game theory. This equilibrium occurs when each player’s strategy is optimal given the strategy of the other player, leading to a situation where no player has an incentive to unilaterally change their strategy. Instead of creating a threat to the existence of humans it creates deterrence for the states to not get into conventional war, like it happened in world wars. It is calculated by the Indian strategic community that the Indian navy and especially the SSBNs is the keystone pillar of India’s defence against China in future.