Executive Summary

The five nuclear-armed permanent members (P5) of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held a closed-door expert-level meeting in Dubai. The meeting gained its strategic importance and focus as it was the first full-fledged meeting under the chairmanship of China where the discussion focused on nuclear doctrines against the backdrop of Russia updating its nuclear policy. This report analyzes the background leading to the meeting, P5 countries and their views on Nuclear weapons, Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine and the broader strategic implications of this meeting.

Background

The meeting occurred on December 4 in Dubai by P5 countries (Russia, United States, United Kingdom, France and China) a grouping created by the UK in 2009 to support the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The P5 is among the nine countries armed with nuclear weapons, which also include India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. Representatives of all five countries attended the meeting. The meeting came after the P5 countries conducted a series of nuclear-related activities in recent months. Beijing considers the meeting given the troubled situations and circumstances of the world the discussion will enhance understanding of each other’s nuclear doctrines by avoiding misunderstanding and miscalculation.

Nuclear Events Before the Meeting

• Sept 25, 2024: China launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into the Western Pacific Ocean.
• Oct 29, 2024: Russia tests Sineva and Bulava ballistic missiles from K-407 Novomoskovsk and Knyaz Oleg submarines toward the Chiza impact range.
• Nov 05, 2024: The US launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile test.
• Nov 18, 2024: President Biden has authorized the first use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia. and the possibility of the U.S. stationing nukes in the embattled Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.
• Nov 19, 2024: Russia officially adopted a new nuclear weapons doctrine which was announced in September.
• Nov 21, 2024: Russia fired a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
• Dec 06, 2024: Putin visited Belarus and signed a treaty offering security guarantees for its closest ally which included the possible use of Russian nuclear weapons to help repel aggression.

Statements against Nuclear Warheads

• In January 2022, before the Russia-Ukraine War, the P5 nations issued a joint statement that the avoidance of war between nuclear-armed states is their foremost responsibility. “We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
• China also reiterated this position in November 2024, opposing the use of nuclear weapons amid speculation about the possibility of the U.S. stationing nukes in the Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.

Russia’s Revised Nuclear Doctrine

Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, released in September and adopted in November introduced significant changes in its nuclear weapons usage and its stand:

• Russia reserves the right to launch nuclear weapons in response to an attack on its territory by a non-nuclear-armed state backed by a nuclear-armed one.
• The new policy broadens conditions for nuclear use, allowing for a response to conventional weapon attacks that pose a “critical threat” to Russia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, or that of its ally, Belarus.
• In contrast, Russia’s previous doctrine (2020) limited nuclear use to threats endangering “the very existence of the state.”
• It also mentions “nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence and is making all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent the aggravation of interstate relations that could provoke military conflicts, including nuclear conflicts.”

Analysis and Forecast

• China’s initiative at this meeting might have its inner agenda to maintain a balance between its growing nuclear capabilities and advocating for non-proliferation norms to reinforce its international image.
• The broader aim of the meeting as said by officials might be to remove misconceptions and misunderstandings but deep inside the meeting was held amid increasing geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s new nuclear doctrine, deteriorating U.S.-China relations in the Pacific Ocean, the Ukraine conflict, and concerns over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
• Certain countries in Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East are making more and more statements about their interest in acquiring these weapons of mass destruction which might have also come in the meeting.
• Throughout the year mostly the second half we have seen many nuclear weapons testing and launching incidents that might be as provoking or as to show their capabilities.
• Incidents like these in future by the P5 countries make non-nuclear states also build/acquire nuclear weapons in defence rather than reduction in usage.
• Russia’s initiative to set up a P-5 expert group of non-government specialists from the five countries during Russia’s chairmanship must be emphasized within this P5 group.
• However, judging by the available information, it’s Western countries that appear unwilling to hold such discussions within the P-5.

Recommendations

• Institutionalize regular meetings and discussions within P5 countries to ensure continued communication on nuclear doctrines and risk reduction.
• Involve representations from other nuclear states like India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan in the meetings to also remove the misconceptions about their nuclear arsenal.
• Engage non-nuclear states to address proliferation concerns and reinforce the global non-proliferation regime.

Conclusion

The P5 meeting in Dubai emphasizes the importance of dialogue to reduce nuclear risks as global tensions increase. Although the focus on nuclear doctrines is a positive development, meaningful progress will depend on building mutual trust, ensuring transparency, and committing to non-proliferation. China’s leadership presents a special chance to steer these conversations, but the effectiveness of these efforts relies on true collaboration among P5 members and their involvement with the wider international community.