Executive Summary

Syria’s geopolitical landscape has undergone a seismic shift with the collapse of the Baathist regime and the fall of Damascus on December 8, 2024. The rapid dissolution of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has created a power vacuum, heightening sectarian divisions, territorial disputes, and external interventions. The emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as the dominant force raises concerns about Syria’s future governance and the rise of extremism. Meanwhile, regional actors, particularly Turkey and Israel, have intensified their involvement, further complicating the situation. Russia’s efforts to mediate between Turkey and Syria have faltered, revealing the limits of its diplomatic influence. This report dissects these developments, highlighting the stakeholders, risks, and implications of this transformative phase.

Recent Developments

Military and Territorial Shifts

1. Collapse of Assad’s Regime:
   
   • Damascus fell to HTS-led forces after a week of intense fighting.
   • Bashar al-Assad fled Syria; unconfirmed reports suggest his plane was shot down over Jordan.
2. Israeli Intervention:
   
   • Israel launched over 300 precision airstrikes to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into extremist hands.
   • Israeli forces secured the Golan Heights and advanced within 20 km of Damascus.
3. Turkish Aggression in Manbij:
   
   • Turkey-backed militias, supported by drones and artillery, attacked Kurdish-held Manbij, reigniting tensions with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
4. US Involvement:
   
   • The US targeted ISIS remnants and reinforced Arab tribal allies within the SDF to stabilize eastern Syria.

Political Developments

1. Transitional Leadership:
   
   • Mohammed al-Bashir was appointed to lead a transitional government tasked with drafting a new constitution and organizing elections.
2. International Reactions:
   
   • Russia, the UN, and Arab nations emphasized Syria’s territorial integrity while condemning Israeli incursions.
   • Saudi Arabia and Turkey criticized Israeli actions as violations of international law.

Key Stakeholders and Objectives

Turkey’s Role in the Syrian Conflict

1. Strategic Objectives:
   
   • Overthrow of Assad: Initially, Turkey aligned with the opposition to topple the regime.
   • Containing Kurdish Autonomy: Turkey launched operations to weaken the Kurdish-led SDF, fearing it could embolden separatism among its Kurdish population.
   • Refugee Crisis Management: Hosting over 3.6 million Syrian refugees, Turkey has used this leverage to secure EU funding and concessions.
   • Safe Zones: Turkey’s operations, such as Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch, aimed to establish buffer zones in northern Syria.
2. Challenges and Implications:
   
   • Turkey’s military incursions antagonize NATO allies and escalate tensions with Russia.
   • Ankara’s actions have deepened mistrust with Syria, especially over the Kurdish question.
   • Domestically, Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions have drawn criticism for overextending Turkey’s resources.

Russia’s Mediation Between Turkey and Syria

1. Mediation Efforts:
   
   • Russia facilitated the Astana Process to establish dialogue and de-escalation zones.
   • Proposed security cooperation through the Adana Agreement (1998) to align Turkey and Syria against Kurdish forces.
2. Russia’s Objectives:
   
   • Stabilize Syria under Assad’s regime to protect its strategic foothold.
   • Counterbalance Western influence by sidelining the US and NATO in the region.
3. Why Mediation Failed:
   
   • Divergent Priorities: Turkey prioritized neutralizing Kurdish autonomy, while Syria demanded Turkish withdrawal.
   • Mistrust: Decades of hostility made security cooperation untenable.
   • Russia’s Limited Leverage:
     • Turkey’s NATO membership complicated Russian pressure tactics.
     • Assad’s reliance on Russia didn’t translate into willingness to compromise on sovereignty.
   • Conflicting Agendas: Iran’s influence and Turkey’s military operations undermined Moscow’s efforts.
   • Domestic Constraints:
     • Erdoğan faced political risks engaging Assad.
     • Assad feared alienating his Alawite base by appearing weak.
4. Consequences of Failure:
   
   • Russia’s inability to reconcile Turkish-Syrian interests reveals its limited influence despite its power-broker role.
   • Prolonged hostilities in northern Syria exacerbate instability.

Risks and Implications

1. Regional Instability:
   
   • Sectarian tensions, particularly the vulnerability of minorities, threaten the social fabric.
   • Territorial fragmentation risks turning Syria into a patchwork of Kurdish, Turkish-backed, and HTS-controlled zones.
2. Extremism:
   
   • HTS’s dominance raises fears of Syria becoming a jihadist haven.
3. Geopolitical Dynamics:
   
   • Israel’s Security Doctrine: Escalated actions may provoke Iranian proxies.
   • Turkey’s Expansionism: Strained ties with NATO could isolate Ankara.
   • US-Russia Rivalry: The Syrian crisis remains a theater for great power competition.
4. Humanitarian Fallout:
   
   • Renewed fighting has displaced thousands, worsening the refugee crisis.
   • Syria’s economic collapse demands urgent international intervention.

Recommendations for Stakeholders

1. For the Transitional Government:
   
   • Ensure inclusive representation to build legitimacy.
   • Seek international support to consolidate authority.
2. For Regional Actors:
   
   • Turkey must reconsider its military posture to facilitate peace.
   • Israel and Iran should avoid escalation that could derail stabilization efforts.
3. For the International Community:
   
   • Launch a UN-led negotiation framework to de-escalate external interventions.
   • Provide humanitarian aid focused on infrastructure and displaced populations.

Conclusion

The fall of Assad marks a pivotal moment in West Asia’s history. While opportunities for democratic governance exist, the risks of extremist rule, territorial fragmentation, and regional conflict loom large. Russia’s failed mediation underscores the complexities of aligning divergent interests in a fractured landscape. Coordinated international action is imperative to prevent Syria from spiraling into further chaos and to chart a path toward long-term stability.