Executive Summary

Thousands of Romanians rallied outside the country’s top court on Friday, 10th January to protest against the December cancellation of the presidential election in which Calin Georgescu won the first round. Romania’s top court annulled the results of the November 24th vote after declassified security documents said Romania had been a target of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during the election period. Calin, whose stunning victory in the first round of voting was declared void, is a hard-right, self-styled outsider critical of NATO who wants to end his country’s support for its neighbour Ukraine. For example, in a 2021 interview, he called NATO’s ballistic missile defence shield located in the Romanian town of Deveselu a “shame of diplomacy” and said the North Atlantic alliance will not protect any of its members should they be attacked by Russia.

The court ruled the whole process must be rerun. Georgescu was polling in the single digits in October but surged to a surprise victory with just shy of 23% of the first round votes. The new vote will take place on May 4th, with a runoff planned two weeks later, on May 18, but there’s still a risk the result may be similar at the second attempt and see ultranationalist Călin Georgescu triumph.

Background

The annulment of Romania’s presidential election on grounds of procedural irregularities and a Russian-backed influence campaign might further politically advantage anti-establishment parties in the election re-run, undermine public trust in the country’s institutions and create a precedent for controversial election results in other parts of Europe. On Dec. 6, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the presidential election, citing procedural irregularities and evidence of a Russian-backed online influence campaign supporting far-right independent candidate Calin Georgescu, who won the most votes. The prosecutor general’s office is also reportedly considering opening criminal investigations into Georgescu’s campaign. Georgescu unexpectedly winning 23% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election on Nov. 24 despite low polling during the campaign, was set to face off against the center-right Save Romania Union’s liberal center-right candidate Elena Lasconi, who received 19.3%, in the second round originally scheduled for Dec. 8. A victory by Calin Georgescu in the second round of Romania’s presidential election could weaken the country’s support for EU integration, NATO and Ukraine, but simultaneously symbolizes the rise of anti-establishment sentiments within the country. “The frustrations he channels as a candidate, the anti-system vibe as well as his promises for the future, cannot be easily matched by another candidate,” said Radu Magdin, a Romanian political analyst. Furthermore, this could also complicate coalition-building efforts and further destabilize Romania’s political landscape, like in countries like Austria. Because Georgescu has been characterized as a far right, pro Russia candidate, the political division and toxicity has only grown lately, leading to the protests. This sense that he is being pushed aside by the old order will only be amplified if the Constitutional Court decides he’s ineligible to stand for election again over irregularities in his first presidential campaign last year.

Scenario Analysis

The looming threat of a far-right candidate gaining traction prompts pro-European Union parties to unite in opposition, as demonstrated by Social Democrat Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s endorsement of reformist candidate Elena Lasconi. This coalition aims to mitigate the influence of ultranationalist rhetoric and maintain Romania’s pro-EU stance, which is critical for the country’s democratic stability and international relations. Georgescu has capitalized on a campaign reminiscent of strategies employed by Russian political figures, which raises concerns about the integrity of democratic processes in Romania. The release of declassified documents suggests that while there is no direct evidence of Kremlin intervention, the circumstances surrounding Georgescu’s campaign warrant scrutiny. Georgescu has unsuccessfully appealed the Constitutional Court annulment decision domestically and has also lodged a complaint to the European Court of Human Rights.“It’s been a month and we still don’t have any clear reason for the election cancellation; there has been no proof of involvement by any state actor or any other actor to justify the events we’re witnessing,” said a spokesperson for Georgescu.

Strategic Recommendations

Pro-EU parties should continue to consolidate their efforts and present a unified front that emphasizes the benefits of European integration, particularly in terms of economic stability and security- regardless of political affiliation.

Reinforcing democratic institutions- authorities must prioritize the establishment of robust mechanisms to monitor electoral integrity, ensuring that foreign influence does not compromise the democratic framework.

In rhetoric, the liberal establishment must not group on nationalists with Russian interference or Kremlin agents, because there are legitimate concerns that ordinary right wingers have with civil society that can be addressed using the EU and NATO as legal mechanisms. However, if they feel disincentivized by the establishment then they may turn to the Russians as a better ruling authority on Romanian governance.

Conclusion

Critics argue that the court’s ruling undermines public trust in the electoral system, while supporters claim it is a necessary measure to protect Romania’s sovereignty and democratic values from external threats. As Romania prepares for a complete re-run of its elections, the implications of this decision will likely resonate beyond its borders, affecting regional stability and NATO dynamics in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. The outcome of this political issue will certainly set a precedent across the entirety of Europe’s political landscape and how other countries should deal with this threat internally and externally.