Executive summary

The U.S has been revitalising the World War II airfield in the Tinian island. While this airfield enhances the overall military posture of the U.S forces it also acts as a tool of deterrence against China. This report analyses this event and recommends the necessity of maintaining the balance of power without heightening tensions in the Indo-pacific region.

Background

Tinian island is the one of the three principal islands of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). During World War II, Tinian island played as a key U.S airfield which played a critical role in the pacific theatre, which served as a launch site for bombing missions, including the atomic bombing in Japan. This airfield has been overgrown and neglected after World War II. Recently the U.S military has initiated their efforts to revitalise the airfield amidst the geopolitical tensions, particularly with China. The U.S. military aims to increase its operational flexibility in the Indo-Pacific region by dispersing assets as part of its Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy. This helps them to focus on the resilience against the missile strike and ensuring strategic redundancy.

Recent developments

The US has been conducting various operations on the island for the restoration of the airfield. An investment of 409$ has been made. Additionally the US is carrying out multiple activities like clearing of overgrown vegetation, runway resurfacing, and construction of fuel systems and aprons for large aircraft. The restoration of the airfield is part of a broader U.S strategy to build up military infrastructure in the pacific, thereby enhancing the logistic operations in the region, influence supplementing the key bases like Guam. Over $400 million has been invested in the project. Additional funding requests for fiscal year 2024, around $78 million, include allocations for clearing World War II-era pavements, adding security fencing, and upgrading utility systems.

Geopolitical context

The restoration comes at a time of heightened U.S.-China tensions, particularly over the South China Sea and Taiwan.he disputed East and South China seas, where Japan and the Philippines two U.S. treaty allies have long-standing territorial issues with China as well as the Taiwan Strait, are 1,500–1,700 miles away from the island. The U.S is seeking to counterbalance China’s growing military influence by fortifying the military presence in the pacific region. In this line of approach they have been focusing on enhancing operational capabilities and strengthening their alliance with the regional patterns like japan, australia and philippines.

Strategic analysis

Geopolitical implications

Revitalising Tinian Island sends a clear signal of U.S. commitment to maintaining military superiority in the Indo-Pacific.It strengthens the U.S.’ ability to project power in a region where China’s military expansion, particularly through artificial islands and missile deployments, poses a growing threat. The U.S. gains strategic depth and flexibility, reducing the vulnerability of relying solely on Guam, which could be a target in any future conflict.

Security implications

The ACE strategy employed by the U.S at the Tinian island enhances their defence capabilities by decentralising the military assets. By distributing the military footprints across multiple locations, the U.S reduces the risk of losing the critical assets in a concentrated attack. Tinian will serve as a backup airfield to Guam’s military base, offering redundancy in case access to Guam is disrupted during a conflict. The U.S. is utilising Tinian Island as a strategic deterrent against potential future conflicts, particularly in light of China’s growing military capabilities. One of the key motivations for this initiative is China’s development of long-range missile systems, which pose a significant threat to U.S. bases on Guam. By diversifying and dispersing its military assets across locations like Tinian, the U.S. aims to mitigate the risks associated with China’s missile reach and enhance its overall defensive posture in the Indo-Pacific region. The proximity of the island to the Chinese land is a matter of concern for china. China perceives this move by the U.S. as an attempt to secure a unilateral military advantage in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing has been accusing the US of being involved in their internal affairs as they perceive Taiwan as an inevitable part of Chinese territory. This may further lead to the escalation of ongoing conflict in the South China Sea region. Even though there are incidents which are leading to increasing tensions, both the countries deny the possibility of a direct engagement.

Scenario Analysis

Best-Case Scenario: The airfield is fully reconstructed within the allocated budget and on schedule, thereby significantly enhancing the military readiness and deterrence capability of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region. The relations with regional allies are strengthened through military cooperation and joint exercises. China has been deterred from aggressive action, thereby ensuring more regional stability in the region.

Most Likely Scenario:Tinian Island Airfield is restored as planned, with potential delays or budget overruns due to the challenging logistics of building on a remote island. The U.S. enhances their deterrence posture, while China continues its military buildup in the region. This leads to an ongoing arms race. Regional tensions remain high, but full-scale conflict is avoided.

Worst Case Scenario: Significant delays and cost overruns plague the Tinian project, undermining U.S. credibility in the region. China uses the opportunity to further militarise the South China Sea and emboldens its actions around Taiwan. Regional allies begin to doubt U.S. commitment. The instability escalates, leading to military confrontations.

Strategic Recommendations

Diplomatic Recommendations:

• Engage with Southeast Asian nations diplomatically to build consensus on a rules-based order, emphasising the need for peaceful resolutions in disputed areas such as the South China Sea.
• Conduct high-level negotiations with China to prevent misunderstandings or accidental conflicts and explore confidence-building measures.

Policy recommendations

• Increase engagement with regional organisations like ASEAN to build consensus around security and economic cooperation, ensuring that U.S. military actions are aligned with regional interests.

Conclusion

The renovation of Tinian Islands airfield shows a decision by the U.S to boost its influence and adaptability in the Indo Pacific region amid increasing tensions with China.. Restoring this airfield is part of the plan of the U.S to bolster their Agile Combat Employment (ACE) approach which offers backup and durability against missile attacks, especially with Chinas expanding military power. This progress underscores the United States commitment to upholding the balance of power and support their allies in the region which has been characterised by disagreements and strategic rivalries.

The project aims to enhance the preparedness of the U.S military and strengthen relationships, with allies such as Japan,Australia and the Philippines.However, this initiative could potentially heighten tensions with China as it may view this expansion as an affront to its influence.The revitalisation of Tinian could act as a deterrent by bolstering the capability of U.S to counter threats and decreasing reliance, on Guam,a critical yet possibly exposed asset.

The best case scenario involves finishing the project on schedule and, within budget to enhance U.S military strength and maintain stability in the region with a deterrent strategy in place.However challenges related to logistics and possible delays might jeopardise the goals of the U.S.Furthermore persistent tensions could escalate into an arms race, in the area.Diplomatically it is vital to interact with countries and China to handle tensions effectively and avoid misunderstandings that could spark conflicts.

Annexure