Executive Summary

This report analyzes Haiti’s escalating political, economic, and humanitarian crises, highlighting the role of gang violence in driving instability and violations of international law. It examines the impact of interventions by multilateral bodies, the USA, and Kenya, amid worsening conditions since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse and a devastating earthquake. With no centralized authority, gangs have seized control, intensifying civilian attacks, economic decline, and leadership failures, leaving 36.4% of the population in extreme poverty. The report also assesses Kenya’s peacekeeping deployments and the USA’s $230.9 million aid in 2023.

Situational Analysis

Political instability : Haiti’s political history is plagued by coups, dictatorships, and the assassination of leaders. The Duvalier regime fostered corruption, oppression, and poverty, diverting U.S. aid for personal gain. U.S. interventions, including the 1991 reinstatement and 2004 removal of President Aristide, further complicated matters. Gangs now wield significant influence, deepened by President Moïse’s 2021 assassination. With no elections since and the 2024 resignation of interim PM Ariel Henry, Haiti remains in political chaos.

Gang violence : Recent attacks on journalists in Haiti, claiming three lives during a hospital reopening in Port-au-Prince, highlight the scale of gang violence. Gangs now control 85% of the capital, with two dominant coalitions: G9, led by Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier, and GPep, headed by Gabriel “Ti Gabriel” Jean-Pierre. Tied to political elites, these groups are part of Haiti’s 200 functional gangs, controlling key infrastructure and armed with smuggled U.S. weapons. Their activities span drug and human trafficking, extortion, and mass killings, rooted in the legacy of the disbanded Tonton Macoutes. Political instability and a weakened military have fueled gang dominance, resulting in over 5,000 deaths this year alone.

Influence of foreign powers : The U.S. has played a significant role in Haiti since Woodrow Wilson deployed troops, with the Marines committing violence against civilians and Citibank seizing Haiti’s gold reserves. These interventions have left Haiti reliant on U.S. aid. The rise of gangs is partly linked to Colombian violence, with drug trafficking and mafia syndicates extending to Haiti via Colombia and Mexico. President Jovenel Moïse’s assassination, executed by a Colombian gang, remains shrouded in mystery, with its mastermind still unidentified.

Economic crisis : The World Bank estimates a 4.2% contraction in Haiti’s GDP for 2024, with Venezuela’s debt relief lowering the debt ratio to 15.2% of GDP. Foreign aid is expected to bring inflation down to 29.3% by August 2024, compared to its 2023 peak of 49.3%. However, 96% of Haitians remain vulnerable to natural disasters, and nearly half the population faces hunger, with famine likely to worsen the crisis.

Humanitarian crisis : Gang violence has plunged Haiti into a deep humanitarian crisis, with 5.5 million people in need of aid, according to UNOCHA. In 2024 alone, 700,000 have been displaced, and one in two Haitians face food insecurity. Sexual violence against children has surged by 1000%, while a cholera outbreak since 2022 has resulted in 4,858 confirmed cases and over 85,000 hospitalizations. Famine threatens 76,000 children, intensifying the dire situation.

Impact Assessment

Political Impact : If the gangs are not targeted and neutralised, the state of Haiti will worsen. Political instability will prevail. Any promising leader who holds the potential to counter them, will be assassinated and people who perpetuate the violence will remain in power. A proper and concrete structure of governance is necessary for Haiti to survive as a country.

Humanitarian impact : With the persisting situation, the humanitarian crisis is going to worsen. The gangs have targeted hospitals and healthcare facilities which affects the emergency care that civilians require. Plus food shortages due to a struggling economy will increase. Sexual violence against women and children will keep increasing, leading to an alarming situation.

Economic impact : The humanitarian and political crisis will push the country into an economic downfall. This would cause mass migration and impact sectors like agriculture, manufacturing. Foreign investment will be deeply affected.

Recommendations

• Strict measures by the U.S. and Dominican Republic are essential to curb weapon smuggling into Haiti and reduce gang violence.
• Haiti needs a political structure driven by its citizens, with international support focused on enabling free elections and empowering local leaders over externally chosen governance.
• The deployment of Kenyan troops under the Multinational Security Support Mission is a positive step toward curbing violence in Haiti, but to effectively counter well-armed gangs, they require more resources and support. The international community should assist with additional personnel and focus on dismantling gangs, while financial aid remains crucial for addressing food and medical shortages.

Conclusion

Haiti requires long-term, multi-faceted solutions with active international support to address its ongoing political instability, gang violence, and humanitarian crisis. Targeted efforts to curb violence, provide medical aid, and enhance civilian security are essential for stability, while ensuring foreign intervention doesn’t lead to undue external control.