Executive summary
The subject of U.S.-China military-to-military communication is central to global security dynamics. As two of the world’s most powerful nations, the United States and China maintain an intricate relationship marked by economic interdependence, geopolitical competition, and mutual security concerns. Military-to-military communication (mil-mil) has served as a mechanism to manage these complexities, reduce risks, and foster stability. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. has emphasized the importance of maintaining open lines of communication with China. In 2022 and 2023, efforts were made to restore dialogue after heightened tension, including the Chinese surveillance balloon incident and U.S. naval patrols near contested areas. The intensification of competition in cyberwarfare and artificial intelligence introduces new dimensions to military communication. This report delves into the historical evolution, objectives, challenges, and prospects of U.S.-China military communication, encompassing critical developments up to the present day.
Background
The relationship between the U.S. and Chinese militaries has evolved considerably since the Cold War. Historically, both countries viewed each other through adversarial lenses. During the Korean War (1950-1953), the U.S. and China directly engaged in military conflict, which defined their antagonistic military postures for decades. However, the normalization of diplomatic relations 1979 under President Jimmy Carter and Deng Xiaoping paved the way for tentative military dialogues. In the 1980s, U.S.-China mil-mil relations flourished briefly, driven by a shared opposition to the Soviet Union. The two nations engaged in exchanges that included officer training, arms sales discussions, and cooperative military exercises. However, the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 marked a significant setback, as the U.S. imposed arms embargoes and curtailed military exchanges, emphasizing human rights concerns. The post-Cold War era brought renewed interactions but also highlighted competing interests. The Taiwan issue, China’s military modernization, and disputes in the South China Sea increasingly shaped the trajectory of U.S.-China military communication.
Objectives of Military-to-Military Communication
The objectives of military-to-military communication (mil-mil communication) between the United States and China, aim to ensure stability, reduce risks, and foster cooperation even amid strategic competition. These objectives are vital in both peacetime and crises. These include-
Conflict Prevention and Risk Reduction: Establishing mechanisms to prevent accidental or unintended military confrontations, especially in contested areas such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. IN 2003, the EP-3 incident where a US reconnaissance plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet near Hainan island. The limited but effective communication manages the fallout and avoids further escalation. The Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) , of which China and the US are parties, provides protocols to manage unexpected interactions between naval forces reducing risk in the Pacific. The Code was adopted in 2014 during the Western Pacific Naval Symposium(WPNS). The Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), signed in 1998, established protocols for resolving sea and air-related incidents. While its effectiveness has been limited at times, it remains a critical framework These are important incidents and frameworks that highlight the need for greater military-to-military communication to reduce the chances of any mishap.
Transparency and Confidence-Building: Encouraging transparency in military capabilities and doctrines to mitigate the security dilemma and build trust. In transparency, there is an important role of Bilateral exchanges, such as the Defense Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT) which allows both nations to discuss military priorities and clarify policies. For instance, discussions on nuclear posture and missile defense aim to reduce uncertainty about intentions. Military-to-military communication is important to build confidence and trust. In 2014 the countries signed two memorandums of understanding on Rules of behaviour for the safety of air and maritime encounters and notification of major military activities like drills and deployments.
Crisis Management: Facilitating communication channels during crises to prevent escalation and explore peaceful resolutions. In 2008, the US Department of Defense and China’s Ministry of National Defense established a Defense Telephone Link (DTL) allowing military leaders to communicate directly during crises. Its usage has been sporadic yet it ensures dialogue remains open during high tensions.
Exploring Cooperation: Identifying areas of mutual interest, such as counterterrorism, counter-piracy, and humanitarian assistance, to build a foundation for cooperation, the US and Chinese navies have cooperated in counter-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden, showcasing how shared interests can bring military forces together even amid broader tensions
Understanding Strategic Intentions: Enhancing understanding of each other’s strategic priorities and red lines to manage differences constructively. In 2015, during the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED), the United States and China engaged in discussions to clarify their intentions regarding military activities in the South China Sea
Key Mechanisms of Communication
U.S.-China military communication is facilitated through a mix of formal and informal mechanisms designed to manage conflicts, build trust, and foster cooperation. These mechanisms operate at multiple levels, as outlined below:
High-Level Dialogues
High-level meetings between senior defense officials from both countries are cornerstone activities. These include Annual Defense Consultative Talks (DCTs): Introduced in the 1990s, these dialogues address long-term security strategies, regional issues, and frameworks for military-to-military engagement. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA): Signed in 1998, the MMCA aims to reduce the risk of accidents and incidents at sea, providing a framework for communication between naval forces.
Crisis Communication Mechanisms
Dedicated channels like the Defense Telephone Link and hotlines between military leadership serve to de-escalate tensions in real time. These mechanisms were tested during crises, such as U.S. surveillance flights near Chinese airspace.
Joint Exercises and Exchanges
Occasional joint naval exercises, such as those focusing on counter-piracy operations, have highlighted areas for limited collaboration. Officer exchange programs and visits to military installations also promote interpersonal understanding. The delegations visit key bases such as China’s PLA headquarters or US Pacific command.
Informal Track 1.5 and Track 2 Dialogues
To sustain communication when official channels are strained and explore creative solutions to contentious issues. Non-governmental actors, including think tanks and retired military officers, play a role in maintaining dialogue during periods of official estrangement. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and Chinese academic institutions, to maintain engagement on sensitive topics like nuclear strategy or cyber security.
Challenges
Despite the existence of established mechanisms, U.S.-China military communication encounters persistent challenges that impede its effectiveness. These barriers stem from strategic, political, and operational issues:
Strategic Rivalry
The U.S. views China as its primary geopolitical competitor, as articulated in the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy, which prioritizes countering Chinese influence. On the other hand, China interprets U.S. policies in the Asia-Pacific as attempts to “contain” its rise. The strategic rivalry spills out globally with increasing influences in conflicts like Ukraine, Gaza, nuclear proliferation issue of Iran. US-china find themselves in different corners over major conflict regions, governance issues, and climate change initiatives
Lack of Mutual Trust
The nations harbor Deep-seated suspicions that undermine transparency and will to cooperate. The U.S. criticizes China’s lack of openness regarding its military modernization and strategic intentions. The Taiwan issue remains the most sensitive flashpoint. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and its military presence in the region provoke strong reactions from China, which considers Taiwan a core interest U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, such as the 2023 approval of a $440 million military package, provoke strong protests from China. The presence of U.S. naval vessels in the Taiwan Strait is frequently labeled by China as a breach of its sovereignty. China views U.S. reconnaissance flights near its coastline and military bases, like those in Guam and Japan, as provocative and intrusive
South China Sea
Territorial disputes and conflicting maritime claims fuel tensions in this region, requiring careful communication to prevent accidents. China’s militarization of disputed territories and the U.S. Navy’s Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) frequently result in tense encounters, underscoring the need for effective communication to avoid accidents.
Periodic Suspensions
China has, at times, suspended mil-mil exchanges as a form of protest against U.S. actions, such as arms sales to Taiwan or high-level visits by U.S. officials. These interruptions hinder the continuity and effectiveness of dialogue mechanisms. In 2022, China cut military ties following then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. In the past, arms sales to Taiwan or high-level meetings between U.S. officials and Taiwanese leaders have led to similar suspensions
Tactical assessment
The relationship between the US and China will determine the regional stability of the Indo-Pacific as a whole. Effective open and transparent military communication will enhance understanding of the stances. There are geopolitical rivalries involved in the region with contests over Taiwan’s autonomy/independence, Japan’s claim on Senkaku island, harassment of the Philippines and Vietnamese fishermen in the South China Sea, and China’s policy of anti-access/access denial. Military communication will prevent any undesired result in the region. It will be better to have multilateral military talks yet these nuclear-powered countries have a responsibility to avoid any major conflict in the region which will destabilize trade, tourism, and political stability.
Strategic assessment
U.S.-China military-to-military talks have significant implications for global security and strategic stability. Their outcomes influence not only bilateral relations but also the broader dynamics of international politics addressing transnational challenges. Military talks provide an avenue for the two powers to align on rules and norms governing global security Agreements. The success or failure of U.S.-China military talks influences how allies and partners perceive their security environment. Prolonged deadlock may lead U.S. allies to strengthen their defenses or seek closer ties with other powers (e.g., Japan increasing its defense spending). Conversely, breakthroughs in communication might reassure regional actors and reduce incentives for military buildup, Failed talks reinforce concerns about a potential Thucydides Trap—the idea that rising and established powers are destined for conflict. These failures may embolden other nations, such as Russia, to exploit divisions and create opportunities to expand their influence in regions like West Asia or Eurasia. Open channels of communication reflect a commitment to responsible superpower behavior, influencing how Russia, India, the EU, and others engage with these powers. The ability to manage disputes peacefully could reinforce the idea that competition doesn’t preclude cooperation, offering a framework for other geopolitical rivalries
Recommendations for Improvement
To enhance the efficacy of U.S.-China military communication, several steps can be considered: Institutionalizing Dialogue Strengthening existing mechanisms, such as the MMCA, and creating additional institutionalized frameworks for regular interaction can enhance predictability and trust. Building Crisis Management Protocols Developing comprehensive protocols to manage incidents at sea and in the air is essential to preventing escalation during encounters. Expanding Confidence-Building Measures, Both countries could expand confidence-building measures, such as joint declarations on no-first-use of force in contested regions or greater transparency in military exercises. Exploring New Areas of Cooperation Identifying non-controversial areas for collaboration, such as disaster relief and pandemic response, can foster a cooperative spirit. Involving Multilateral Platforms e.g. Incorporating regional and international stakeholders, such as ASEAN, into U.S.-China military dialogues can enhance legitimacy and reduce bilateral tensions.
Conclusion
U.S.-China military-to-military talks are a crucial mechanism for managing one of the most consequential relationships in global politics. These dialogues serve as a stabilizing force in an era of increasing strategic competition, helping to mitigate risks, prevent misunderstandings, and reduce the likelihood of conflict over sensitive issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. While the mechanisms in place—such as high-level dialogues, crisis communication channels, and joint exercises—demonstrate a framework for engagement, their effectiveness has been undermined by mistrust, geopolitical rivalry, and periodic suspensions. For these talks to achieve their potential, both nations must prioritize continuity, institutionalize communication channels, and depoliticize military dialogues. Trust-building measures, transparency in strategic intentions, and collaboration on shared challenges like counter-piracy and disaster relief could create avenues for functional cooperation despite broader tensions. The success of these efforts will not only determine the trajectory of U.S.-China relations but also have profound implications for regional stability and global security. In an interconnected and volatile world, sustained military dialogue remains indispensable for averting conflict and fostering a more predictable and secure international order
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