Executive Summary:

This is a multi-layered report regarding recent developments in West Asia that have been happening almost simultaneously. They have a little possibility of being coincidental. They are somehow connected through an invisible string of geopolitics. This report tries to make sense of these developments and connect as few dots. The report starts with an analysis of the event and the reason behind this sudden interest of Ukraine and Syria in forming transactional relations by providing military assistance to each other. It goes on to discuss Russia’s interest and a long history in the region. It gives an opinion and the possibilities of a future with stable Turkey-Syria relations and what might be the driving force behind it. The report gives an account of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or the HTS, a militant group based in Syria with its primary base in Idlib, it gives an idea about their leadership, areas of operation, ideology, structure and the de-escalation zone that exists in the contested regions of Syria. The report concludes with having provided the reasons for the current events in the region.

The vortex of cranage

• A team of 250 Ukrainian military experts arrived in Syria’s Idlib and the countryside of Jisr al-Shughour to train the militants from the sunni extremist organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra on how to manufacture drones. In a deal of mutual benefit, Kyiv has delivered a set of first-person views and suicide drones in exchange for fighters of Chechan, Georgian, Uyghur origin who would fight against Russia in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. Ukraine is arming and polishing militants affiliated with Turkestan Islamic Party under the command of Hayat tahrir al-Sham.The head of Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate, Kyrylo Budanov communicated with Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of al-Nusra to reach a deal.The military experts from Kyiv have been involved in several industrial workshops spread across the length of Idlib and Jisr al-Shughour, areas under the influence of Islamic militants and rebel groups.
• Intriguingly, this development opens up valves that overflow the multiverse of pure chaos. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has been wreaking havoc in the ‘Putin-Erdogan’ area throughout September. Around 60 are reported to have been injured as a result of these clashes. It was a set of bubbling skirmishes between pro-Assad forces and the HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) which finally spilled over. The towns of Taftanaz (Idlib), Maarat al Naasan village have been bombed by pro-Assad forces. Afrin-azaz road has been cut off by the Syrian National Army (SNA) Police Force. The countryside of Aleppo, Makalbis, Balanta and Hama have been targeted with mortar shells by the forces affiliated with the Syrian regime. Some of the areas that have been targeted are- Al-ankawi in Al-Ghab Plain, Al Nayrab, Kafr-Nouran village, Mantaf village ..
• Syrian-Russian warplanes have intensified the airstrikes in ISIS dominant areas and their expected hideouts in caves along the Syrian Badia. The city of Sarmin, east of Idlib, the town of Al-Bara in Idlib, and the village of Majdalia in the countryside of Idlib are some of the areas reported to have been targeted.
• In Aleppo province,Russian and Turkish forces ran a joint military patrol, with air protection by Russian aircraft. The patrol set off from Gharib village and toured the villages of Qarmogh, Shiran Tel Hajeb, Ain Bat, Hulaqiyah and Qabhagh, east of Ain Al-Arab (Kobani), to Bandarkhan village in the western countryside of Tel Abyad. Previously, Russian and Turkish forces ran a joint patrol of eight vehicles escorted by Russian aircraft Ain Al-Arab countryside (Kobani). The patrol set off from the Russian base in the broadcast building in the west of Kobani and toured villages stretching along the Syrian-Turkish border until it reached Zor Maghar village in Kobani countryside.
• In an alternate dimension, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is persistent with his calls on reconciliation with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad. The initiative to start anew comes in contrast to the region so plagued with overlapping conflicts that it has become an epicenter of undying unrest. Turkey is eager and willing to build even a slow-paced relationship with Damascus after more than a decade of estrangement. Russia and Iran are involved in brokering a deal between the two counties. Turkey is aiming for talks on normalizing bilateral relations, joint counter-terrorism initiatives, withdrawal of Turkish troops and in relevance of the Adana Agreement today.

A Tangled Tango in West Asia

• Ukraine and Syria- Ukraine and Syria are a classic case of ‘quid pro quo’. They both benefit from this need-based alliance. Now that Ukraine has launched its new offensive in Russian territory, it gets from Syria what it needs the most: fighters. Damascus on the other hand gets an opportunity to alleviate its technology and military. Syria could use drones to surveil its adversaries inside and outside its territories. This also provides a foundation to build joint military exercises and cooperation upon.

Ukraine is befriending Russia’s long-standing partners. There is no doubt about the closeness between Moscow and Damascus when it comes to military assistance, in that light, coming right between and sowing the seeds of potential sabotage is a move right off the chess board. It is not the move itself but the idea of ‘a move to come’ that has the capability to be a sore point between Russia-Syria relations. Ukraine is working hard to insert in all the situations and places that Russia is in. Both the countries have stooped down to the ‘narrative’ warfare wherein they try to generate a popular opinion, whether it be negative or positive. For instance, President Zelensky’s meeting with President Putin and Vice President Kamala Harris about the ‘victory plan’ and trying to get the US to officially make Ukraine a NATO member, and Russia putting out narratives about amendments to its nuclear deals and justifications to use a nuclear weapon is nothing but a information manipulation to exploit a delicate situation.

• Turkey and Syria- Ankara severed relations with Damascus back in 2011 and the relations have been somewhat hostile since Turkey supports the militant groups that are against the Assad regime. Turkey seeking a normalization in its relation with Syria has greater depth than that perceived upon first look. The Syrian civil war led to an influx of refugees in Turkey. Turkey houses at least 3.2 million registered Syrian refugees. Better relations would mean a possibility to deport these refugees. There is an anti Syrian rhetoric in Turkey ever since the number of refugees began to exert a visible change over the traditional demography of the nation. Turkey’s economy is in tatters, with inflation on the rise and collapse of the lira, more than two-thirds of the people are struggling to make ends meet. Turkey can no longer afford to project itself as a pariah, it desperately needs to engage in some money making endeavors like economic cooperation with its neighbors and boosting its trade by building relations. Turkey and Syria have something in common- their need to curtail Kurdish autonomy. Following this lead, it seems that Ankara might be preparing to set the grounds for a possible cooperation with Syria in case the US forces revisit and mirror their withdrawal from the region if the Trump administration makes a return to the US.

Having a better relation with Syria might lead to having better relations with Russia.Turkey being a NATO member, has drifted towards the US ever since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out. Russia on the other hand would not mind getting close to a NATO member, just to show off that it can. A retaliation to the US bringing the countries that Russia considers its backyard under the shield of an anti-Russia alliance. Russia put trade embargos on Turkey back in 2016 when Syria shot down a Russian fighter plane in 2015. Russia later smoothened it out with s400s to showcase its power, that it could make or break relations at whim. With Ankara’s cooperation with Russia in Syria, Erdogan means to bring his friendship with Putin to the limelight. Turkey’s incursions in Syria’s Al-Bab and Afrin saw several cities, previously controlled by the Autonomous Area of North and East Syria come under Turkey’s control. Turkey wanted to create a ‘safe-zone’ between itself and the armed rebels of AANES which included areas like- Ras Al Ayn, Tal Abyd ,Kobani, Qamishli, Ayn Issa, Suluk where Turkey would get the Syrian refugees inside its territory resettled. ANNES has control over most of the areas east of the Euphrates River.

• Russia and Syria- Syria is Russia’s corridor to the Mediterranean, its influence in the region has grown since it stepped in to back the Assad regime in the civil war that followed the tragic failure of the 2011 Arab Spring. It supported the Assad regime against Daesh. It would be a security nightmare for the Syrian regime to take Aleppo and Idlib back under its control all by itself for they have been under the umbrella of the opposition for a long time now. Russia along with Turkey and Iran backed the ceasefire that led to the Astana Agreement that established the de-escalation zones in Syria. Both the leaders share a bond over their passion for being elected on ‘majority votes’. The Radwan forces,a special unit of Hezbollah, fought alongside Russia in the civil war. All this support came at a price, Russia established a naval port at Tartus and Hmeimim air base outside the port of Latakia which would ease its dependency upon the Black Sea Fleet tremendously. The al-Jarrah air base is already being jointly used by Russia and Syria.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

The existence of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”) can be traced back to the days of the Syrian Civil War. Jabhat al-Nursa was the parent organization and was affiliated to al-Qaeda. Nusra’s leader, Abu Mohammad alJolani, quickly established a capable organization, which secured its own donors in the Persian Gulf. Jabhat al-Nusra maintained its ties to al-Qaeda even after al-Qaeda’s highly publicized split with the Islamic State, notwithstanding the fact that the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had been pivotal in Jabhat al-Nusra’s establishment. Jabhat al-Nusra underwent a couple of rebranding operations. In 2016, the organization was disso;ved and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham came into being. Again in 2017, the organization amalgamated with Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, Jaysh al-Sunna, and Jabhat Ansar al-Din to establish HTS. HTS broke off with Al-Qaeda and came to be identified as a salafist-jihadist organization.

• Leadership- HTS remains under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani though the aim has shifted over the years and now the group operates with the goal of forming an Islamic rule in Syria. HTS is against the Syrian regime as well as its golden pot- Iran. al-Jolani, a member of Al-Qaeda in Iraq was chosen by Baghdadi to form a branch in Syria under the name of al-Nusra, a front for the ‘people of al-Sham’.
• Area-The group is primarily located in Syria’s Idlib province though it has influence over Aleppo, Hama, Dera’a, and Damascus as well. The first cells of Jabhat al-Nusra used to operate along the Syria-Iraq border, especially, al-Bukamal and in areas inside Syria like Homs and Damascus.
• Ideology- Salafism is an ultraconservative branch of Sunni Islam which calls for a return of the traditional way of life of the forefathers. The political division of Islam is considered to be a dividing factor for them and to be against the Fitna or Islamic unity.
• Structure- There is not much information about the group’s structure except that it has an advisory body called Majlis al-Shura consisting of 12 members. HTS operates through eight divisions- military, security, services, religious law, courts, media, finances and politics.

The group changed its name because it would allow the US to engage with them which would not be possible otherwise, given that the group was affiliated to Al-Qaeda. For instance, in 2017 HTS was involved in an operation in Hama countryside with FSA faction which were supported by the CIA.

• Major Donors-

Hamid bin Abdallah al-Ali from Kuwait

Shafi Sultan Mohammed al-Ajmi from Kuwait

Abd al-Rahmam al- nuaimi from Qatar.

Ali bin Abdallah al-Suwadi from the Eid bin Muhammad al Thani Charitable Society.

• The IDLIB de-escalation zone- It was created under the Astana Agreement to stop clashes between the forces and to give way for humanitarian aid.

Conclusion:

The places like Qamishli, Aleppo, al-Tanf, Kobani, and Latakia are also strategic in the sense that they form parts of Iran’s Land Bridge that connects Iran with the Levant. So the pro-Assad forces are bent on securing these areas and getting it under their control. With the tensions escalating in the region, the Axis of Resistance will want to get their corridor going with Israel cracking down on them heavily. Once the corridor reaches its full potential, it will be very difficult to stop it. The Port of Latakia is of strategic importance to Russia because of the base it has there. The US will seek to stop it and Russia will want to be a part of it and benefit from it. Ukraine is getting more involved in places where Russia already exists as a means to continue their war in different places and through different means. Syria and Turkey will surely get in touch and work something out along the border areas because they both are against the Kurdish population, besides they both need each other. Turkey for economic purposes needs to broaden its political horizon and Syria needs to get rid of its pariah status, for long it has been isolated in the region.