EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

North Korea allocates an estimated 20-30% of its GDP to defense spending, enhancing its weaponry arsenal to create a balance of power with South Korea through asymmetric warfare. While much of North Korea’s conventional weaponry remains outdated—relying on Soviet and Chinese designs—it has rapidly advanced in missile technology and developed nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. This report analyzes the tactical and strategic implications of North Korea’s growing military capabilities and provides recommendations to mitigate the escalating threat posed to the Korean Peninsula and beyond.

SITUATIONAL OVERVIEW

Diplomatic talks between North Korea (DPRK) and the U.S., aimed at addressing denuclearization, have repeatedly broken down due to inflexible positions on both sides. The 1992 Agreed Framework collapsed in 2002 over accusations of nuclear enrichment by DPRK, while the six-party talks failed in 2009. Attempts to revive dialogue through the 2018 Singapore Summit and the 2019 Hanoi Summit ended in deadlock. The last major diplomatic breakdown occurred in October 2019, in Stockholm.

Since 2019, North Korea has ramped up ballistic missile tests, conducting over 124 launches, including short-range, intermediate-range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). These tests have created heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and concern among neighboring countries and global powers.

MISSILE TESTS (2019-2024)

Year	Short Range Missiles	Intermediate Range Missiles	ICBMs
2019	2 (KN-25)	None	None
2020	7 (KN-25), 2 (Hwasong 11B)	None	None
2021	5 (KN-23/-24)	1 (Hwasong-12B)	None
2022	8 (KN-23/-25)	2 (Hwasong-12A)	3 (Hwasong-15/-17)
2023	6 (KN-23/-24)	None	3 (Hwasong-18/-15)
2024	3 (KN-25)	2 (Hwasong-16A/-16B)	None

TYPES OF MISSILES, DRONES, AND ROCKETS IN THE ARSENAL

Ballistic Missiles

• Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM): 69+ missiles, including KN-23, KN-24, and Hwasong-5/-6. These missiles, with a range of 300-700 km, are mobile and harder to detect, making them highly useful in regional conflicts.
• Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM): 10+ Hwasong-12/-12 mod 1 missiles, capable of striking Japan or Guam, heightening regional tensions.
• Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM): 17+ missiles, including Hwasong-14, Hwasong-15, and Hwasong-18, capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.

Cruise Missiles

DPRK has ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCM) like Hwasal 1 and 2, currently in the testing phase. These are speculated to target both land and maritime assets.

Rocket and Artillery Systems

Key systems include:

• 240mm Multiple Rocket Launcher System: Highly mobile with a range of 40 km.
• 170mm Self-Propelled Gun (Koksan): Range of up to 60 km with rocket-assisted projectiles.
• Super Large Multiple Rocket Launcher System: Includes KN-25 with precision-guided quasi-ballistic missiles.

Drones and UAVs

Drones are based on Chinese and Iranian designs, primarily used for reconnaissance and surveillance, with a range of 10-15 km. DPRK is developing combat drones similar to Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze models.

Satellite Rockets

The Unha and Taepodong series are based on ICBM technology, used to launch satellites for military reconnaissance. The potential dual-use capability of these rockets poses a serious concern.

BACKGROUND

North Korea’s military evolution is rooted in collaboration with Russia and China. Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, demonstrating progress in miniaturizing nuclear warheads for missile deployment. Its missile systems have evolved from short-range designs (KN-23) to modern ICBMs (Hwasong-15/-17). In addition to conventional forces, North Korea has developed substantial unconventional capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons, drones, and hypersonic missiles.

TACTICAL ASSESSMENT

The steady expansion of DPRK’s military arsenal, especially its nuclear and missile programs, has destabilized the security environment in Northeast Asia. Frequent missile tests provoke responses from regional actors, accelerating an arms race. Japan and South Korea are both investing heavily in missile defense systems, and revising their security policies to include pre-emptive strike capabilities. China, while supporting DPRK, adopts a cautious stance to avoid further regional destabilization.

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

North Korea’s growing arsenal has drawn global attention, with implications far beyond Northeast Asia. The increased alignment of ASEAN countries with the U.S. against DPRK’s provocations highlights the broader Indo-Pacific security concerns. U.S. military deployments in the region—including nuclear bombers and aircraft carriers—trigger Chinese and Russian concerns about their strategic interests. An escalation on the Korean Peninsula would disrupt global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor and electronics industries, with disastrous economic consequences.

THREAT ANALYSIS

DPRK’s military capabilities are increasingly being viewed as a deterrence against U.S. influence in the region. Its ICBMs, such as Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-17, are capable of striking the U.S. mainland. North Korea also poses a proliferation risk, with reports of arms transfers to countries like Syria and Pakistan. Its large special forces, numbering up to 200,000 troops, enable asymmetric warfare, particularly against South Korea.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Renewed Diplomatic Efforts: China, Russia, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea must collaborate to resume denuclearization talks with North Korea. A phased approach with mutual concessions could be more effective than all-or-nothing demands.
2. Confidence-Building Measures: Similar to India-Pakistan CBMs, confidence-building measures between North and South Korea could reduce tensions and create space for dialogue.
3. Arms Control Agreements: A regional arms control agreement limiting missile tests and weapon proliferation should be explored to prevent further militarization in Northeast Asia.

CONCLUSION

North Korea’s expanding military capabilities pose a significant challenge to regional and global peace. The collapse of diplomatic efforts and the increasing polarisation of global powers around the Korean Peninsula create a volatile environment. A concerted effort by regional powers and global stakeholders is needed to prevent further escalation and promote long-term stability in Northeast Asia.