Executive Summary

This report analyses the HQ19 anti-ballistic missile defence system, which China displayed in the Zhuhai air show held from 12th to 17th November 2024. The HQ-19, along with the J-35, a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, was the highlight of the Zhuhai air show, as observed by many defence experts.

Functional Capacity of HQ19

• An anti-ballistic missile system, ‘Surface to Air’ missile
• Range speculated: 1000 to 3000 KM
• Six missile launchers and Mobility 8×8 platforms
• 610 A information Radar and 780 target Designating Radar
• Exoatmospheric interceptor (Pentagon – HQ 19 likely to be mid-course interceptor )
• Extensive combat protection coverage
• Strong penetration and countermeasure capabilities (HQ-19 can defend against hypersonic glide vehicle weapons that are extremely fast and agile. – Wang Yanan, chief editor of Aerospace Knowledge magazine.)

Tactical and Strategic Assessment:

The HQ19 ballistic missile system’s presumed combat capability is an example of China’s growing defence technology and military capabilities, as it is considered to be at par with the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

As per its range of 1000–3000 km and high atmospheric and exoatmospheric interception capabilities, HQ19 ballistic missile interception is also comparable with Russia’s S-400. Essentially designed to intercept and destroy medium- to long-range ballistic missiles, the HQ19 can also work against certain intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)

HQ 19 has shifted the strategic balance in favour of China by providing a shield against ballistic missile threats in the region, particularly against systems such as India’s Agni-4 and Agni-5, and protection of their significant cities against any missile attacks.The biggest assumption is that it may also shield China from a counter-nuclear strike if China broke its no-first-use policy.

 

Threat analysis:

China’s emerging missile technology is a threat to major countries in the region. The rapid advancement of its technology and missile capability is increasing the technological gap between China and India as the advanced anti-ballistic missile defence system can shield China from potential missile attacks, including those that could come from India in the event of heightened hostilities.

The advanced missile technology is also a threat to allied countries of the US, such as Japan and South Korea, which compels the US to increase its deterrence and technological military buildup in the region.

Recommendation:

Given China’s growing military capabilities and its occasional geopolitical spats with major countries in the region, the US can consider transferring military technology to friendly countries like India to maintain strategic balance in the region. India must also take this as a sign to rapidly enhance its missile technology by boosting its ongoing missile programs.

Conclusion:

The increasing technological advancement of China’s missile system gives China an edge in the region in terms of both attack and deterrence. The indigenous technological development of the fifth-generation fighter aircraft J35 and advanced anti-ballistic missile HQ 19 put pressure on other countries in the region, like India, to increase their missile buildup and enhance their technology. India must boost its AMCA, a fifth-generation fighter jet program, and enhance its anti-ballistic missile defence system.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force is set to display for the first time the HQ-19 surface-to-air missile system at the Airshow China 2024 in Zhuhai, South China’s Guangdong Province, to be held from November 12 to 17, 2024. Photo: Screenshot from China Central Television

(Picture source: Twitter/David Wang)