Executive Summary

Haiti shares a land border with only one country, the Dominican Republic, and is surrounded by the Atlantic ocean in the north and Caribbean sea to the south and west. The Dominican Republic, in 2024, deported over 276,000 Haitian migrants as a response to a surge in undocumented immigration to the country. The surge in migrants is a result of Haiti’s ongoing political and social instability. The Dominican Republic government’s efforts to remove approximately 10,000 undocumented migrations per week has received backlash, especially from Haiti officials and human rights organisations. This report aims to analyse the geopolitical and humanitarian risks associated with mass deportation of Haitians from the Dominican Republic.

Background

The Dominican Republic shares a land border of approximately 392 km long with Haiti. The relationship between the two countries has been fraught with tensions over the years, brought about by historical grievances, socio-economic disparities and political differences.

In 2013, the Dominican Republic passed a law that only those born in the country to Dominican parents/legal residents were granted citizenship. This ruling was applied to all individuals born between 1929 to 2010, which effectively stripped citizenship to nearly hundreds of thousands Haitian immigrants of at least two generations. The Organisation of American States (OAS) among many others condemned this law for its discriminatory nature. Due to the backlash, in 2014, the government of Dominican Republic mandated those individuals born to undocumented or foreign parents to re-register, though the process was claimed to be burdensome, lengthy and eventually left many unable to secure citizenship of the country. This pattern towards Haitians continued.

Dominican Republic Luis Abinader began to build a wall along the border between the two countries in 2022. And the following year, the Dominican Republic banned thirty-nine celebrities of Haitian origin from entering the country and eventually closed the whole border as well as stopped issuing visas because of a irrigation canal that Haiti was building.

The construction of this controversial irrigation canal, the Pittobert canal, in the Massacre river has further strained the relations between the two countries. For Haitians, this has become a display of their pride and sovereignty while the Dominicans view it in a negative light. In 1929, the two countries signed a treaty which stipulated that each had equal and fair access to the border waters. In August 2018, Haiti began to construct the canal, drawing waters from the Massacre river, also known as the Dajabón river. This raised concerns with the Dominican Republic, as they believed it would reduce the water flow. A binational technical meeting was held in May 2021 to address the concerns, but it proved to be futile. On one hand, Haiti stated that it was in line with the 1929 treaty, while the Dominican Republic wanted a review of the canal’s infrastructure.

Construction paused in July 2021 following the assassination of Haiti’s president, Jovenel Moïse, and remained halted for over two years. The construction resumed in August 2023, driven as a response to droughts. By this point, the canal had reached 60% completion. In turn, the Dominican Republic closed and militarised the border, as well as began building the Don Miguel Dam upstream to control the river’s water supply. While the canal will impact only about 2% of Haiti’s cropland, it will significantly reduce downstream water availability for both irrigation and domestic use, threatening ecosystems as well of both countries, raising concerns about water insecurity and increased waterborne diseases like cholera, particularly during the dry season.

Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere has faced severe natural disasters, from earthquakes, droughts to floodings and suffers from political, social and economic challenges. The decades of political instability in the country has currently resulted in around 80% of its capital, Port-au-Prince, falling under the control and influence of gangs. This situation has prompted the Haitians to migrate to other countries, including the Dominican Republic. However, the strained relations between the two countries has sparked the mass deportation of Haitians from the Dominican Republic.

Strategic Analysis

Geopolitical Tensions: The deportation of over 276,000 Haitians has further impaired the diplomatic relations between the two countries. Haiti has accused the Dominican Republic of engaging in discriminatory practices in addition to violating international human rights standards. The UN has requested countries to halt sending back of Haitians from their respective countries, while the Dominican Republic defended its stance by stating national security. Nevertheless, this move by the Dominican Republic may result in destabilising the region as there is a possibility of a Haitian migrant surge to the countries in the Caribbean, the U.S., France, Brazil, and the Bahamas.

Humanitarian risks: The mass deportation presents significant humanitarian risks to the deported Haitians. The ongoing political instability, gang violence, food insecurity and other lacking basic services will make it difficult for the deportees to reintegrate into the country. They face an uncertain future and face issues related to documentation and discrimination. The sudden influx may burden the already overstretched institutions like healthcare. There have been reports of deportees often being detained in unsanitary conditions before being sent to Haiti along with no options to seek asylum or legal resources. Furthermore, the border area has witnessed significant violence, human trafficking and other human rights violations.

Economic impact: The Dominican Republic’s labor market heavily depends on Haitian migrant workers, particularly in agriculture, construction, and domestic work. A sudden and large-scale removal of Haitian migrants could disrupt key sectors of the economy, particularly in rural areas. For instance, after a month of the border being closed, the businesses in the Dominican Republic faced a loss of approximately USD 21 million. The labor shortages and the high costs of deportation, will place a heavy load on the government.

Scenario Analysis

Dominican Republic continues deportation of Haitians: If the deportations of the Haitians increases, the diplomatic relations between the two countries will deteriorate further, leading to heightened tensions along the border. This may result in armed confrontations involving border forces and even local militia groups. The increased instability may motivate more Haitians to leave the country, even attempting to take up illegal means to do so.

Diplomatic deadlock persists: The Dominican Republic continues its deportation efforts, but at a slower pace, while Haiti struggles to respond effectively to the influx of returnees. Diplomatic negotiations between the two countries stagnate, leaving the underlying tensions unresolved. This results in a prolonged state of uncertainty, with both countries unable to agree on a comprehensive migration management solution. The situation remains tense but does not escalate into open conflict, though human rights concerns and economic pressures continue to mount. There may be a temporary stabilisation without a proper resolution.

Dominican Republic and Haiti reach a solution: In this scenario, both countries reach a resolution that can be agreed upon. They ratify a bilateral agreement involving migration flows which includes a comprehensive strategy on patterns and security. The governments help each other’s economies through trade pacts as well. They receive international aid and support to resolve the root causes of the tensions.

Strategic Recommendations

Improve border management cooperation: Both countries can engage in dialogues to develop an efficient border management system. This could involve establishing a joint border security force and improving data-sharing, especially related to migration trends. This task force can also focus on cracking down human rights violations, like human trafficking, along the borders.

Upgrade the conditions for deportees: The Dominican Republic as well as Haiti can work together or with international organisations like the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) to provide better protection and conditions to ensure their safe return and reintegration into Haiti.

Diplomatic talks and bilateral negotiations to address the root causes: There is a need to address the underlying issues that have resulted in both migration and deportation of Haitians. With the humanitarian aid from the international community, Haiti should increase its efforts on economic development, reduce gang violence and become politically stable. Both the countries must reach an agreement on the issues related to the Massacre river and water usage. Through prioritising cooperation on migration and sustainable solutions, the need for mass migration will reduce and the overall situation will deescalate.

Conclusion

The mass deportation of Haitians by the Dominican Republic has exacerbated tensions. Without swift intervention, the chances of escalation are high which would worsen the humanitarian crisis and geopolitical tensions. While the Dominican government justifies these actions to control undocumented migration and ensure national security, the operation has led to widespread criticism for its human rights implications. Addressing the immediate crisis requires enhanced cooperation between both nations, a focus on humane deportation processes, and adequate support for returnees in Haiti. Long-term solutions must include addressing the root causes of migration. Coordinated action is in need of the hour to prevent crises that could worsen the situations of migrants and destabilise the region further.