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Dragon in the Skies: Analysis of China’s Growing Air Power and Strategic Implications

Executive Summary

In October 2024, the Chinese Airshow in Zhuhai featured China’s growing military prowess with advanced stealth aircraft, drone systems, and long-range bombers, signalling its intent to challenge U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific. The Airshow also revealed China’s upgraded Cold War jet-powered H-6 bomber taking off for missions designed to intimidate Taiwan as part of the war-game drills.These developments enhance its operational reach and autonomous warfare capabilities.

Situation Overview:

Area: China, Taiwan, and Western Pacific.

Time: 2023–2024.

Forces Involved: Chinese PLA Air Force, Naval Aviation Units.

The event is tied to the increasingly threatening regional climate, which includes cases of intensified PLA intrusions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and joint Sino-Russian exercises.

OOB Analysis:

Composition:

Stealth Aircraft: J-20, J-35A.

Bombers: H-6 series.

Unmanned Systems: SS-UAV and autonomous swarms.

Disposition: The systems are concentrated close to the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and important air bases.

Capabilities:

  1. Stealth aircraft improved operational survivability in contested areas.
  2. Long-range bombers that can launch nuclear and missile strikes
  3. High-end drones bring about autonomous battle dynamics

Objectives

  1. To deter US military activities around Taiwan
  2. To gain ascendancy in the region of the Indo-Pacific.

Tactical and Strategic Analysis:

  • Tactical Analysis:

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence reported that over 25 hours following the start of the exercise on October 14, 153 Chinese military aircraft, 14 naval vessels, and 12 other ships were detected around the island. According to the ministry, 111 of the aircraft had crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the island’s Air Defence Identification Zone. He estimates the Chinese air force now has about 230 of these bombers. These operations are designed to threaten Taiwan and to make clear Beijing’s intent against any separatism.

  • Strategic Analysis

In July 24, according to a North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) statement, American and Canadian fighter jets intercepted a joint patrol of two Chinese H-6 and two Russian Tu-95 bombers near Alaska. In the past, Chinese bombers had never flown close to the U.S. mainland in an operation that showed the rising power and confidence of China’s military. The operation reveals that increasing strategic cooperation between China and Russia is a new-fashioned joint challenge to U.S. military dominance. Two stealth platforms and long-range bombers undermine the U.S. air superiority. Sino-Russian coordination creates a more complex strategy for the deployment of U.S. forces.

5. Threat Analysis:

  • Chinese Capabilities:
  1. Chinese stealth technologies are upgraded to give some advantages on a rival Western platform.
  2. The drone systems allow surveillance and strikes at minimal cost.
  3. H-6 bombers extend China’s strategic reach in the South China Sea territories and in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Intentions:
  1. The aim is to strengthen Chinese deterrence against US forces.
  2. They are using military prowess to coerce regional actors such as Taiwan into acknowledging Chinese territorial claims.
  • Potential Scenarios:
  1. Increased PLA air incursions near Taiwan.
  2. Joint Sino-Russian drills in critical maritime zones.

6. Recommendations:

  • Operational Recommendations:
  1. Taiwan should gear up its early warning systems and deploy anti-aircraft and counter-drone defences.
  2. Conduct regular joint military exercises with allies near the Taiwan Strait.
  3. The US should improve Arctic and North Pacific radar coverage to track future incursions.
  • Strategic Recommendations
  1. Strengthen Indo-Pacific alliances, especially in India, Japan and Australia
  2. Concentrate on strengthening missile defence systems in case of long-range threats.
  3. Intelligence-sharing frameworks need to be expanded with regional partners.

Conclusion:

The Zhuhai Airshow displayed China’s expanding military power, especially in stealth aircraft, drone systems, and long-range bombers deployed in exercises. These developments signal China’s desire to dominate the Indo-Pacific region as it challenges the importance of the United States. Furthermore, the deeper military cooperation between China and Russia shifts the threat profile for regional stability. On these developments alone, a more comprehensive response is needed. This answer should be tilted toward improving missile defences, creating more advanced counter-drone systems, and strengthening relationships with regional partners like India, Japan, and Australia. All these must be done as quick ground for establishing a credible deterrence against the rising Chinese aggression.

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