Executive Summary
The Druze, making up 3-5% of Syria’s population, have maintained autonomy despite marginalization, especially in Sweida. Factions like the Men of Dignity and Mountain Brigade are willing to integrate into a unified military, contingent on guarantees of inclusivity, non-sectarianism, and human rights. The Druze aim to safeguard their autonomy while pushing for a redefined, inclusive national framework. Their integration could serve as a blueprint for unifying other factions, but challenges persist, including mistrust of central authority, sectarian concerns, and regional security implications.
Background
The Druze, comprising about 3% of Syria’s population, primarily reside in Sweida, the heartland of their community. Long plagued by discrimination, Sweida became a hub of anti-regime protests. The new Syrian leadership announced plans to disband armed groups and integrate them into the national military, but Druze fighters in southwest Syria remain defiant as Druze commanders remain wary of government motives. Rejecting disarmament, they stressed their commitment to Syria’s unity while preserving their defense forces to ensure autonomy.
Two major Druze rebel groups in Syria, the Men of Dignity movement and the Mountain Brigade, the largest army factions, announced their readiness to integrate into a unified national army following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. They pledged to join a new military structure aimed at safeguarding Syria’s sovereignty.
Conflict Analysis
Key Players
- The Druze Community: A religious and ethnic minority, comprising 3% of Syria’s population, concentrated in Sweida. Historically marginalized and central to anti-regime protests.
- Druze Rebel Groups: The Druze rebel groups have resisted alignment with extremist factions and have not fully integrated with the Assad regime’s forces. These militias emerged to defend their community against external threats.
- New Syrian Leadership: Led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Jolani), seeking centralized control. De facto Syrian leader working to consolidate power through military integration and assurances to minority groups.
Conflict Dynamics
In Syria’s conflict dynamics, the Druze community in Suwayda has maintained unofficial autonomy, uniquely avoiding existential challenges to their place in the country. Representing 3-5% of the population, they have largely stayed localized, despite growing resentment towards the Assad regime’s prolonged oppression. While some Druze supported the regime.
Druze commanders have emphasized unity with Syria while safeguarding their self-defense forces, reflecting a dual approach: preserving their autonomy while avoiding fragmentation of the state. This positions the Druze as stakeholders advocating a reimagined national framework rather than separatists. Their participation remains conditional and is set on assurances that the military will remain inclusive, non-sectarian, and dedicated to protecting human rights and sovereignty. The groups firmly opposed any sectarian or factional military serving as a tool of oppression, as seen under Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Instead, they advocated for inclusive civil and political efforts that prioritize human dignity and rights.
Impact Assessment
- This approach ensures their interests are represented in the post-Assad order, leveraging their organized defense forces as a bargaining tool.
- Deep-seated mistrust, coupled with fears of losing local control, could impede future dynamics as the Druze insist on safeguards against the misuse of military power and reject any repeat of sectarian favoritism.
- The integration of Druze militias could serve as a blueprint for incorporating other factions, potentially fostering broader stability and driving governance transformation in Syria.
- Israel: The Druze militias’ autonomy has historically stabilized Israel’s borders by avoiding hostile alliances. Their integration into Syria’s centralized army, however, could shift allegiances, raising security concerns. Both Israel and Arab nations are cautious of Iranian influence; if the new Syrian army aligns with Iran-backed elements, it may prompt preemptive actions. Israel may leverage Druze ties to gather intelligence or shape integration terms to safeguard stability or its strategic interests.
- Turkey: Turkey is primarily focused on the Kurdish issue in Syria, where it opposes any consolidation of Kurdish autonomy. A stronger Syrian military, bolstered by integrated militias, might either confront Kurdish forces or tolerate their autonomy, both of which affect Turkey’s strategic calculus.
- Russia: Moscow would be wary of U.S. attempts to align with Druze factions to undermine the central Syrian government. Any indication of Druze autonomy being co-opted by Western or regional powers such as Israel could prompt Russia to deepen its involvement to ensure loyalty to Damascus.
- Stability in Syria is seen as crucial for regional security, trade, and curbing extremism, aligning with US and Arab nations’ broader goals.
- A unified, non-sectarian military in Syria might also reduce the chances of extremism, refugee flows, and cross-border instability.
Conflict Resolution Recommendations
- The integration demands careful monitoring to prevent the empowerment of hostile elements within Syria’s new army, which could exacerbate instability both domestically and regionally.
- The policy makers could evaluate the Druze integration as a test case for ensuring minority participation in the new Syrian governance model and suggest further measures according to future developments.
- Syria remains pivotal for countering terrorism and curbing Iranian influence. The integration of Druze militias into the Syrian army must be carefully monitored to prevent any alignment with Tehran-backed elements or a shift in military alliances favoring Iran.
Conclusion
The integration of Druze militias into the new Syrian army is both an opportunity and a challenge. While it signals potential unity, it also underscores the need for trust-building and institutional reforms that address historical grievances and ensure equitable power-sharing. Failure to meet these conditions could exacerbate fragmentation and perpetuate conflict.
References:
https://manage.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/04012025
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/syria-s-communal-diversity-and-the-challenges-of-transition
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