HONDURAS SUGGESTS ENDING US MILITARY COOPERATION OVER TRUMP MASS DEPORTATION THREAT

Executive Summary

The U.S. military presence in Honduras, through Joint Task Force Bravo (JTF-Bravo), has been a critical component of regional security and humanitarian efforts since 1983. Operating from Soto Cano Air Base, JTF-Bravo facilitates disaster response, counter-narcotics operations, and multilateral military exercises involving six other Central American nations. This partnership has significantly enhanced regional stability and bolstered bilateral relations.

However, recent political tensions, spurred by Honduran President Xiomara Castro’s criticisms of U.S. immigration policies, threaten the continuity of this cooperation. A breakdown in relations could destabilize Central America, reduce the U.S. ability to counter emerging threats, and create opportunities for other powers to increase their influence. This report analyses the risks associated with these developments and provides recommendations to strengthen the partnership, emphasizing diplomatic engagement, improved migration policies, and deeper regional collaboration.

Background
The U.S. military presence in Honduras, particularly through Joint Task Force Bravo (JTF-Bravo) has been a cornerstone of bilateral relations since 1983. Joint Task Force-Bravo (JTF-Bravo), a subordinate command of the US Southern Command, is a joint military exercise of the USA, Honduras and six other countries, including Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama in Central America. This task force operates from Soto Cano Air Base in Honduras, which has hosted a significant US military presence since August 1983. Although the base is Honduran-owned and is funded by Honduras, it served as a strategic hub for US operations across Central America.

Since its establishment as JTF-11 in 1983, the task force has evolved to address both security and humanitarian challenges. Initially focused on deterring Nicaraguan aggression, its mission expanded over the decades to include joint and interagency operations, disaster relief, humanitarian assistance, and regional security. JTF-Bravo has played a pivotal role in responding to natural disasters such as Hurricanes Mitch, Matthew, Eta, and Iota, as well as international crises like the 2010 Haiti earthquake. Beyond disaster response, it supports to counter-narcotics efforts, delivering essential airlift, medical aid, and logistical assistance to affected regions.

The task force conducts joint exercises, including Fuerzas Aliadas Humanitarias (FAHUM) and the Panama-Honduras Combined Training (PHCT), to improve interoperability with regional forces. These exercises enhance disaster response capabilities, military readiness, and interagency coordination. Through its ongoing efforts, JTF-Bravo strengthens U.S.-Honduran relations and supports regional security initiatives and counter drug trafficking.

Strategic Analysis

Geopolitical Risks: A stalemate in the relation between US and Honduras would risk creating a strategic vacuum in Central America. This could embolden transnational criminal organisations and increase regional migration pressures, directly impacting US national security interests.
Security Interdependence: Honduras from time to time is burned with critical security challenges including gang violence and its role as a drug trafficking corridor. The US-Honduras cooperation, facilitated by JTF-Bravo is essential to counter narcotics, disaster response and regional security operations in Central America. A compromise of the military cooperation between the nations would increase regional instability and create opportunities for other global powers, such as China, to expand influence in Central America.
Economic Dependence: Honduras heavily relies on US military and economic assistance. The U.S. has provided over $431 million since FY2016 to combat poverty, corruption, and insecurity. The Soto Cano air base generates significant economic benefits, including jobs and infrastructure support to Honduras. A strain in relations between these both nations would result in economic consequences for Honduras and diminish US capacity to project influence in Central America.
Multilateral Operations: As a host nation of US air bases, Honduras’s cooperation is vital for facilitating JTF-Bravo activities and a compromised military exercise could lead to limitations and hinder the task force’s ability to respond to crises. Additionally, this could disrupt JTF-Bravo’s regional operations by reducing trust and efficiency in multilateral training and disaster response efforts.
Political Fragmentation: The tensions between the US and Honduras could polarise the regional nations with some aligning more closely with Honduras’s nationalist stance, complicating U.S. efforts to promote unified regional security and stability. Furthermore, the regional nations might view the diluting US presence in Central America as weak and could prompt them to explore alternative partnerships.
Impact on JTF-Bravo’s Role in Countering External Influence: JTF-Bravo is vital to SOUTHCOM’s strategy to counter external threats from China, Russia, and Iran in Latin America. China’s investments in port facilities and cyberinfrastructure signal ambitions for military power projection, while Russia and Iran exploit regional instability to expand their influence. A strained U.S.-Honduras relationship could weaken JTF-Bravo’s capacity as an area denial element, allowing adversaries to exploit gaps in regional security.

Scenario Analysis

The longstanding US military presence in Honduras is facing a potential re-evaluation following President Xiomara Castro’s remarks linking the cooperation to President-elect Trump’s comments on curbing illegal immigration through mass deportations and closing the border. Following Castro’s remarks, an uncertainty has been introduced into the partnership, which has historically benefited both nations.

While the United States views Soto Cano as a strategic hub for operations in Central America, Honduras depends on U.S. military assistance for security, logistical, and economic support. Castro’s proposal to halt military cooperation reflects larger regional dissatisfaction with U.S. trade and immigration policies, which have been exacerbated by Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs and territorial issues, including those concerning the Panama Canal.

Castro’s stance has come under heavy criticism. Given Honduras’ reliance on U.S. assistance and collaboration, Castro’s political opponents contend that compromising military relations might have negative political and economic effects. This stalemate could strain ties between the United States and Honduras, undermine regional security and cause political instability in Central America.

Recommendations

Diplomatic Engagement and Open Dialogue: Leverage President Castro’s willingness for open dialogue by initiating high-level bilateral discussions to address shared concerns such as migration, deportations, and economic challenges.
Align on Migration Policies: The U.S. should coordinate deportation processes with Honduras to minimize economic and social disruption, while Honduras commits to reintegration efforts and improved governance to reduce outward migration.
Reaffirm Commitment to JTF-Bravo: Both nations should publicly emphasize the importance of JTF-Bravo’s operations for regional stability, disaster response, and counter-narcotics efforts, demonstrating their mutual dedication to security and cooperation.
Enhance Multilateral Cooperation: Jointly engage with the six other Central American nations to strengthen regional collaboration, showcasing JTF-Bravo as a platform for unified training, crisis response, and counter-crime initiatives. The multilateral cooperation with the regional nations could expand the strategic influence of the US in Central America.

Conclusion

The evolving dynamics between the U.S. and Honduras highlight the urgency of preserving and adapting their strategic relationship. Ensuring the continuity of JTF-Bravo’s operations is crucial for addressing shared challenges like security threats, humanitarian crises, and migration pressures. By fostering transparent communication, aligning mutual priorities, and enhancing cooperation with regional partners, both nations can mitigate potential risks and build a more resilient partnership. A stable and cooperative U.S.-Honduras relationship remains essential for maintaining security and influence across Central America.

References

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HONDURAS SUGGESTS ENDING US MILITARY COOPERATION OVER TRUMP MASS DEPORTATION THREAT

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