Executive Summary

This report examines the growing strategic partnership between China and Morocco, emphasizing their collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative and shared geopolitical interests. It explores the implications of this relationship on regional dynamics, particularly in the context of the Western Sahara dispute and Morocco’s evolving foreign policy. The analysis highlights opportunities for economic growth and stability, alongside potential challenges in balancing regional rivalries and global power shifts.

Background

China-Morocco relations are characterized by diplomatic ties established in 1958, rooted in economic cooperation, trade, and infrastructure development. Key aspects include Morocco’s strategic location as a gateway to Africa and its participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The relationship has grown through trade partnerships, cultural exchanges, and support in multilateral forums. President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Morocco further solidified the bilateral relationship, paving the way for enhanced cooperation and collaboration in the future.

Strategic Analysis

Political Landscape:

Morocco’s political system is centered on its monarchy, with King Mohammed VI holding significant authority over governance and policy-making, including appointing the prime minister and dissolving parliament. The monarchy remains a cornerstone of political stability. The 2021 parliamentary elections saw the National Rally of Independents (RNI) emerge as the leading party, forming a coalition with the Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM) and the Istiqlal Party (PI). This coalition reinforced pro-palace parties while the Justice and Development Party (PJD) experienced a sharp decline in influence. The government, led by Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch, reflects technocratic governance closely aligned with the monarchy, reducing the prominence of traditional political opposition.

China’s political system is dominated by the CCP, with the National People’s Congress functioning as a nominal legislative body under party control. Since 2012, Xi Jinping has consolidated power as General Secretary, President, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, with the 2018 abolition of presidential term limits enabling his indefinite rule.

Bilateral ties between China and Morocco have steadily strengthened since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1958. Key milestones include King Mohammed VI’s state visit to China in 2016, which elevated the relationship, and President Xi Jinping’s recent visit in 2024. These engagements have led to several agreements, including the establishment of a strategic partnership and Morocco’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative.

Security Dynamics:

China’s interest in Morocco is driven by several strategic factors. Morocco’s location at the crossroads of the Arab world, Africa, and the Mediterranean makes it a key hub for expanding trade routes, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Additionally, Morocco offers a favorable environment for labor-intensive manufacturing, making it an attractive destination for industrial relocation. Furthermore, Maghreb countries’ efforts to diversify foreign relations and reduce Western influence align with China’s approach of promoting an alternative development model without imposing political or cultural systems.

International Interventions:

Morocco’s growing ties with China are closely linked to the Western Sahara dispute, where Morocco aims to reinforce its sovereignty claims. Historically, Western nations, particularly the U.S., have supported a UN-led resolution process for the conflict. However, Morocco’s deepening partnership with China may complicate Western mediation efforts, as Beijing could adopt a more favorable stance toward Morocco, potentially undermining Algeria and the Polisario Front’s interests. The Trump administration’s 2020 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara marked a significant shift in U.S. policy, intended to strengthen ties with Morocco and counter Russian and Chinese influence in North Africa. Ironically, this move has heightened tensions with Algeria and could indirectly enhance China’s regional position by enabling it to solidify economic and political relations with both Morocco and Algeria.

Scenario Analysis

Points of Escalation:

• China’s deeper engagement with Morocco could provoke Algeria, escalating regional rivalries, particularly over the Western Sahara dispute, potentially leading to militarization of borders.
• External actors, such as the U.S., Russia, and EU, could take opposing sides, heightening geopolitical competition and destabilizing North Africa further.
• Militancy in the Sahel could spill over into the Maghreb, threatening key Chinese investments and increasing regional insecurity.

Possible Resolutions:

• China leverages its growing influence to act as a neutral mediator in the Western Sahara dispute, fostering dialogue between Morocco, Algeria, and the Polisario Front.
• Morocco and Algeria reach a diplomatic agreement, potentially brokered by international actors, reducing regional tensions and enabling greater economic cooperation.
• The Belt and Road Initiative projects contribute to regional development, creating shared economic interests that incentivize peace and collaboration.
• Western and Chinese strategies converge on stabilizing North Africa, leading to enhanced global cooperation in the region.

Strategic Recommendations

Leverage Economic Diplomacy: Strengthen economic ties by expanding Belt and Road Initiative projects in Morocco, focusing on infrastructure, manufacturing, and renewable energy. This will not only solidify China’s influence but also position Morocco as a key gateway for trade in Africa, the Arab world, and the Mediterranean.

Conclusion

The evolving China-Morocco partnership reflects deepening economic, political, and strategic ties, underpinned by shared interests in trade, development, and regional stability. While this relationship offers significant opportunities, it also reshapes geopolitical dynamics in North Africa, particularly concerning the Western Sahara dispute. Navigating these complexities will require balanced diplomacy to ensure mutual benefits while addressing regional and global challenges.