Overview

Manipur is a hilly northeast India region that shares its borders with Myanmar. The state of Manipur can be geographically characterised into two areas: the hill and the valley. The Kuki tribes reside in the impoverished hilly regions of the state, whereas the Meitei community is settled in the Imphal Valley. The crisis is an ethnic conflict between the Meitei community and Kuki tribes. The tensions erupted in the region as a response to a court verdict that proposed granting the Meitei community Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, the same as the disadvantaged Kukis. The conflict has been exacerbated by the influx of fighters from Myanmar’s civil war, smuggling of arms, and increasing criminal activities.

Background

The Meitei population mainly lives in the Imphal valley. The Kukis and Nagas, along with several other ethnic tribes, reside in the hills. Naga and Kuki settlements are also found in the valley region, though less in numbers. Both communities have a history of ethnic rivalry and communal violence. The Meitei community and the Kuki tribes were already on the edge. The Kukis have asserted that granting scheduled tribe status to the Meitei community, which is a majority in the state of Manipur, would strengthen their existing strong influence on the government and society, allowing them to buy land or settle in predominantly Kuki areas. The Kukis say a war on drugs waged by the Meitei-led government is a scheme to uproot their communities.^[1] Furthermore, the issue of illegal migration from Myanmar has increased tensions.

The Crisis

On May 3, 2023, the Manipur High Court considered bestowing Schedule Tribe status for the Meitei community, which triggered the longstanding conflict between the two groups, escalating tensions over job reservation, land rights, and religious freedoms. The clashes soon began after a protest march organised by the All Tribal Student Union of Manipur (ATSUM) against the Manipur High Court’s decision.

Within 2 months, the death toll reached up to 70, displacing about 60,000 civilians and destroying over 1700 buildings, including homes, temples, and villages. Social media disinformation and misinformation fuelled further violence, including the use of rape as a weapon. Additionally, the looting of about 3,000 arms and ammunition from police stations and state armouries was reported. Though the state and central government—which are both ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—have claimed that the situation has begun to calm down, intermittent clashes have continued to erupt, and those fighting on both sides have warned that Manipur remains on the brink of civil war ^[2]. The clashes have renewed and strengthened a longstanding demand by the Kukis for their own separate state. The ongoing Meitei-Kuki conflict follows a similar pattern, spreading from one district to eight within a year, with brutal killings, beheadings, rapes, house burnings, the propagation of ethnic nationalism and sub-nationalism, and the active role of insurgent groups ^[3]. Despite the claims of having control over the situation, sporadic clashes and demands for an independent Kuki state ensure that Manipur stands on the cusp of full civil war.

India-Myanmar Border

The India-Myanmar international border stretches up to 1,643 kilometres and runs from the tripoint with China in the north to the tripoint with Bangladesh in the south. The India-Myanmar border had a Free Movement Regime (FMR) that allows tribes living along the border to travel 16 km (9.9 mi) across either side of the border without visa restrictions ^[4]. The border moves along the deep forests, raising security issues. The borderlands are vulnerable to critical issues such as the infiltration of illegal migrants, cross-border trafficking of drugs, arms trade, and smuggling. Myanmar is the largest producer of opium and poppy. The Meitei community attributes the tensions to the perceived illegal migration of tribal Kuki-Chin communities from Myanmar. The Kukis in Manipur accuse them of exploiting this situation for their benefit. The FMR now faces scrutiny amid the intricate interplay of historical ties and present challenges ^[5].
The strategic location of the border, with its routes and dense forests, enables an unwrinkled flow of narcotics, allowing the drug cartels a significant hold on the regional trade network. These operations are often managed by organised crime groups, ethnic militias, insurgent organisations, and military factions, which also engage in other illicit activities such as arms smuggling, money laundering, and human trafficking.

Invisible hand

According to former Manipur Chief Justice Siddharth Mridul, “No one appears to be in control in Manipur, where ‘an invisible hand” continues to fan violence. He further added, “Every time the situation seems to be normalising, there is a fresh injection of violence. This leads me to believe that there are forces… Even if the forces are external, they do have collaborators locally who ensure that the agenda of keeping Manipur burning is pursued vigorously.”

Unverified videos are circulating on social media of American missionaries in the guise of working for NGOs, allegedly providing arms, bulletproof jackets, and drones to Kuki militants in Manipur. This further complicates the already sensitive issue in the fabric of Manipur. Simultaneously, the Kuki, who may view such aid as a way to defend themselves, are likely to be seen as being supportive of foreign interests, making their negotiation or peace-building role awkward. This raises some critical questions about the vigilance of government agencies and the effectiveness of monitoring mechanisms to curb foreign funding and intervention. This demands prompt and thorough investigations to authenticate such claims, trace the origins of such funding, and ensure international organisations operating in India maintain their declared humanitarian goals. Manipur holds strategic importance as it shares a border with Myanmar and serves as a gateway to Southeast Asia for India. Also, Manipur is crucial for India’s Act East Policy (AEP), which aims to develop cultural links, trade, tourism, and connectivity with Southeast Asia. With China’s growing power and influence in the conflict-ridden Myanmar, instability in Manipur can benefit China ^[6].

Government’s response

The Narendra Modi administration also runs the state government in Manipur, led by N Biren Singh, a Meitei. In response to the clashes, security forces have created buffer zones in different border districts and set up camps and posts on highways.
But often, militants from both groups use the hills and the jungle area to cross into other districts and attack each other as authorities struggle to restore normalcy in the northeastern state. The cycle of violence and reprisal attacks has prompted the Centre to send more troops, reimpose AFSPA, and hold talks with representatives of various tribes. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) has been restored in Manipur as part of the government’s response to the ongoing violence. Similarly, buffer zones and camps on highways were established to avoid head-on confrontations between Meitei and Kuki groups. However, militants easily find ways to go around such measures, as the hilly terrain is not porous and the forest is not very dense. In light of such challenges, the government must adopt sustainable peace-building strategies. These may include initiating inclusive dialogue between the communities, addressing socio-economic disparities, and enhancing border security to curb illegal activities that fuel tensions. Local governance structures should also be empowered, and trust through community-driven initiatives is vital for long-lasting peace.

Conclusion

This crisis in Manipur is best defined as a very complex interplay between ethnic tensions, historical grievances, and socio-economic disparities, as well as influences from outside. If relief in the form of short-term measures like the deployment of security forces, creating buffer zones, or re-imposing the AFSPA has been drawn on paper, they surely will not address the reasons driving this conflict to some kind of resolution. The government needs to focus on inclusive peacebuilding efforts, for example, building trust between communities, addressing concerns over land rights and reservations, and curbing the illegal influx of arms and narcotics.

The strategic importance of Manipur in Southeast Asia makes it imperative to stabilise the region. If the root cause of the conflict is addressed by providing equitable development, India would transform Manipur into an epitome of resilience and cooperation, hence ushering in long-term peace and safeguarding its national interests. The time has come to act decisively and inclusively to check further escalation and pave a united and prosperous future for the people.