Background:

The Sahel, a semi-arid region stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, faces severe challenges, including jihadist uprisings, displacement, and environmental crises. Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali are destabilized by Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and ISIS Sahel operations, displacing over 4.2 million people. Military coups since 2020 have weakened governance, worsened by desertification, farmer-herder conflicts, and food insecurity. External actors have shaped the region’s dynamics, with France withdrawing its Operation Barkhane in 2022, allowing Russia’s Wagner Group and later its Africa Corps to gain influence. The U.S. also withdrew forces from Niger in 2024 following strained relations. Regionally, ECOWAS faces challenges from the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso in 2023 as a military alliance, threatening ECOWAS’s economic integration. Meanwhile, the G5 Sahel, an intergovernmental group with a Joint Task Force since 2017, aims to counter terrorism and bolster development, but instability persists.

Key Stakeholders: ECOWAS, Alliance of Sahel States (AES), G5 Sahel, Wagner Group / Africa Corps, United Nations (UN), African Union (AU), France, United States (U.S.), Russia, China, JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin), ISIS (Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and West African Province), Al-Qaeda

Current Situation:

The Sahel region is experiencing significant instability, marked by frequent military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020, leading to the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). These nations are facing severe jihadist insurgencies linked to ISIS and Al-Qaeda, worsening security and public sentiment against governments. The withdrawal of international forces, including France’s Operation Barkhane and U.S. troops, has left a power vacuum increasingly filled by Russia’s Africa Corps. ECOWAS has condemned the coups and imposed sanctions, later rescinded, granting a six-month period for the AES states to reconsider leaving the bloc. Meanwhile, climate change-driven crises like food insecurity, water scarcity, and displacement are exacerbating violence and instability, with millions requiring humanitarian aid.

Geopolitical and Geostrategic Implications

• Shift in Global Influence: The region has seen a decline in Western influence, particularly from the U.S. and France, while Russia’s presence, through the Africa Corps, has grown. China’s influence is also increasing through infrastructure agreements.
• Military Power Dynamics: With the withdrawal of France’s Operation Barkhane and U.S. troops, the power vacuum has allowed Russia to strengthen its foothold. AES states are aligning with Russia, distancing themselves from Western powers and ECOWAS.
• Regional Instability: Frequent military coups and the rise of jihadist insurgencies have weakened government institutions and border security, creating a breeding ground for terrorism.
• ECOWAS Challenges: The bloc’s inability to prevent military coups and restore democracy raises questions about its effectiveness and credibility. The potential exit of AES states threatens the bloc’s economic and geopolitical cohesion.
• Terrorist Expansion: Groups like ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and their affiliates exploit weak governance, poverty, and anti-government sentiments, increasing the threat to regional and international security.
• Resource Competition: Tensions over ownership of natural resources and land usage have escalated due to climate change-induced scarcity, fueling inter-ethnic and farmer-herder conflicts.

Economic Implications

• Trade Disruptions: The potential exit of AES states from ECOWAS could result in a loss of nearly $150 billion in trade and services annually, significantly impacting the bloc’s economic integration and regional development.
• Humanitarian Costs: Food insecurity, displacement, and poverty necessitate increased humanitarian aid, diverting resources away from economic growth initiatives.
• Economic Fragmentation: Internal divisions within ECOWAS and geopolitical alignments with external actors like Russia and China create fragmented economic policies, limiting regional cooperation and progress.

CONCLUSION

The Sahel crisis is one of the most volatile and complex issues in the world due to interconnected challenges pertaining to security, political instability, terrorism, and environmental stressors. The role of ECOWAS in addressing these issues is crucial. While it has made few advancements, the capacity of the organisation needs to be increased to face the complex dynamics of the Sahel to restore peace and stability. It can be through improving military readiness, diplomatic ties within the region as well as partnerships with international bodies, and conflict resolution. The decisions taken by the ECOWAS will have a significant impact in shaping the future of the Sahel.