Executive Summary

The war in Ukraine represents one of the most significant geopolitical crises of the 21st century and the largest European conflict since World War II. Rooted in historical tensions, NATO expansion, and the global power struggle between the West and Russia, the conflict has reshaped the international order. Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, launched in February 2022, aimed to prevent Ukraine’s accession to NATO and secure strategic buffer zones. This war has bolstered NATO unity, deepened Russia-China relations, and accelerated the reconfiguration of global alliances. As the U.S. transitions into the Trump administration, Ukraine faces a critical juncture in its foreign policy, heavily influenced by shifts in American geopolitical priorities.

Introduction

Approaching the third anniversary of the war, Ukraine remains steadfast in resisting Russian advances. Despite heavy casualties on both sides, Ukraine, under President Zelensky, has successfully held significant portions of its territory. However, recent Russian gains in the eastern regions and the changing political landscape in the United States—Ukraine’s primary ally—pose significant challenges to Kyiv’s strategy. With $278 billion in Western aid since 2022, Ukraine has been able to sustain its military efforts, but uncertainty looms over future U.S. support under a Trump presidency.

Regional Overview

Russia has occupied nearly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, with recent advances in the Donetsk sector, including capturing the town of Selydov. Despite substantial Western aid, Ukraine’s counteroffensives in 2023 failed to sever Russia’s supply routes to Crimea, highlighting the limitations of conventional tactics against entrenched Russian defenses.

To adapt, Ukraine is focusing on disrupting Russian supply chains and leveraging advanced weaponry. Innovations such as the use of Elon Musk’s Starlink for real-time battlefield communication demonstrate Ukraine’s commitment to high-tech warfare. Yet, the sustainability of this strategy is contingent on continued Western support, which faces potential reductions under the new U.S. administration.

Global Overview

The 2024 U.S. presidential election results, which brought Donald Trump back to power, have introduced a degree of unpredictability to Ukraine’s foreign policy. The Republican Party’s skepticism towards foreign aid and Trump’s preference for isolationist policies could lead to reduced military and financial assistance.

Recognizing this, Ukraine is diversifying its diplomatic and military partnerships, strengthening ties with European nations, Canada, and Japan. Zelensky’s “peace formula,” emphasizing multilateral collaboration on post-war reconstruction, underscores Ukraine’s proactive approach to maintaining international support. However, Trump’s focus on countering China and his transactional foreign policy approach may compel Ukraine to adjust its strategy, balancing short-term security needs with long-term diplomatic goals.

Conflict Analysis

In the final weeks of the Biden administration, efforts are underway to expedite aid shipments to Ukraine, including air defense systems, artillery, and armored vehicles. However, logistical delays and potential policy reversals under Trump may hinder Ukraine’s ability to sustain its military operations.

Zelensky has expressed cautious optimism, emphasizing the importance of bipartisan support in the U.S. While Trump’s approach to Russia remains uncertain, his administration may prioritize geopolitical deals, potentially at Ukraine’s expense. This underscores the urgency for Ukraine to secure critical aid before the transition of power and recalibrate its strategy to address emerging challenges.

Thematic Analysis

Ukraine’s Westward diplomatic pivot since 2014 has been a central factor in escalating tensions with Russia. Critics argue that adopting a “Finlandization” model—maintaining neutrality to appease a dominant regional power—might have prevented the current conflict. However, this approach contradicts Ukraine’s aspirations for integration into the Western security and economic framework.

From Russia’s perspective, NATO’s expansion represents an existential threat, evoking historical parallels to past invasions through Ukrainian territory. This narrative has fueled Russian aggression and reinforced its determination to prevent Ukraine from becoming a Western stronghold.

For Ukraine, the war has exacted a devastating toll on its population and infrastructure. With a declining fertility rate, mass emigration, and industrial destruction, Ukraine faces an uphill battle in preserving its national identity and economic viability. The Zelensky administration’s focus remains on defending territorial integrity while securing vital industries and exploring pathways to peace.

Conclusion

The return of Donald Trump to the White House necessitates a reassessment of Ukraine’s foreign policy. With the possibility of reduced U.S. support and a potential peace deal favoring Russia, Ukraine must adopt a dynamic strategy that balances immediate security needs with long-term diplomatic objectives. Strengthening alliances, enhancing domestic resilience, and maintaining international legitimacy will be crucial in navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.

By leveraging its position as a sovereign democratic state resisting aggression, Ukraine aims to secure a place in the evolving global order. While challenges abound, the resilience demonstrated thus far offers hope for a sustainable resolution to the conflict.